A world in transition
The world is in a state of flux. But what will 2022 mean for credit markets in this next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, with debt levels at record highs, inflation concerns increasing, cybersecurity risks mounting, supply chains shifting and investors increasingly focused on ESG issues?
#MoodysOutlooks analyze what is driving these changes, the credit risks and opportunities they present and how they inform our outlook for different regions, countries and sectors. We filter out the noise of the news cycle to provide key data and insights.
State of Nations
Thank you to everyone who joined our global State of the Nations events. Missed a session? You can now access the on-demand sessions here. These virtual sessions highlight the forces which drive our macroeconomic and sovereign outlooks for 2022 and will shape the credit landscape in the coming year.
State of Nations | Americas & EMEA
Policy books in the making? The Changing Role of Governments in the Post-COVID World
State of Nations | APAC
Policy books in the making? The Changing Role of Governments in the Post-COVID World
You still have time to get an in-depth analysis of key issues and their effect on credit quality in eight markets. Find more information here
Emerging Markets Outlook: No one-size-fits-all recovery in 2022
After a turbulent, pandemic-induced 18 months, credit conditions for emerging markets are finally set to stabilize in the year ahead. Find out why the ability to adapt to climate change effects while simultaneously navigating rising political and social risks shape our outlook across regions, sectors and asset classes in the year ahead.
Emerging markets debt accumulation was larger, faster and broader in the past 10 years than previous decades
See more on Emerging Markets here
Cyber Risk – Global
Increasing cyber risks are challenging organizations around the world to fortify their cybersecurity, particularly as remote and hybrid work arrangements create vulnerabilities to computer networks. Cyber insurance costs also continue to climb.
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2022 Cyber Outlook: Cyber risk evolves with hybrid work and automation
China Regional and Local Governments: Lower revenue, debt-financed growth drive negative outlook
Our outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative, driven by a number of factors including lower land sale revenues and higher debt issuance to fund infrastructure spending. Regional growth will be uneven, reflecting varied economic fundamentals and carbon transition risks. Find out why RLG funding gaps will widen in the coming year.
Asia Pacific Sovereigns
Roughly half of APAC economies will undergo a growth rebound in 2022, but differing degrees of exposure to vulnerable sectors and disparate approaches to reopening will result in a multispeed recovery. Debt burdens will peak in 2022 and stabilize for most APAC economies at higher levels than before the pandemic. Read the outlook to understand how normalization will involve difficult policy choices for many governments.
Nonfinancial Companies – China
China's continued economic recovery from the pandemic is supporting the stable outlook for Chinese corporates in 2022. But, slowing GDP growth, emerging risks -- from policy transition to increased regulatory uncertainties -- and tightened funding access may influence the fortunes of the sector.
Global Credit Conditions
Steadying economic activity will enhance the credit quality of debt issuers overall in 2022. However, leverage risks will remain high. Discover how COVID-19's aftershocks will continue to reshape economies, how new technologies will accelerate shifts in corporate operating environments, and how meeting net-zero emissions targets will require massive shifts in policy and investment.
Sovereigns – Global
The global economic rebound will continue into 2022, easing immediate credit pressures for governments in most regions and enabling a slow unwinding of support measures. Read the analysis to understand the ramifications of the unprecedented levels of government debt, the social and institutional costs of the pandemic, and the differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies.
Moody’s sovereign credit outlook for 2022 is stable amid the continuing economic recovery. However, governments will bear the brunt of the longer-term costs of the pandemic and will be tested by challenges such as climate change.
