Outlooks 2022

#MoodysOutlooks

A world in transition

The world is in a state of flux. But what will 2022 mean for credit markets in this next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, with debt levels at record highs, inflation concerns increasing, cybersecurity risks mounting, supply chains shifting and investors increasingly focused on ESG issues?

#MoodysOutlooks analyze what is driving these changes, the credit risks and opportunities they present and how they inform our outlook for different regions, countries and sectors. We filter out the noise of the news cycle to provide key data and insights.

State of Nations

Thank you to everyone who joined our global State of the Nations events. Missed a session? You can now access the on-demand sessions here. These virtual sessions highlight the forces which drive our macroeconomic and sovereign outlooks for 2022 and will shape the credit landscape in the coming year.

schedule 120 Mins | 10 November 2021

State of Nations | Americas & EMEA

Policy books in the making? The Changing Role of Governments in the Post-COVID World

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schedule 120 Mins | 10 November 2021

State of Nations | APAC

Policy books in the making? The Changing Role of Governments in the Post-COVID World

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You still have time to get an in-depth analysis of key issues and their effect on credit quality in eight markets. Find more information here

OUTLOOK

Emerging Markets Outlook: No one-size-fits-all recovery in 2022

After a turbulent, pandemic-induced 18 months, credit conditions for emerging markets are finally set to stabilize in the year ahead. Find out why the ability to adapt to climate change effects while simultaneously navigating rising political and social risks shape our outlook across regions, sectors and asset classes in the year ahead.


Credit conditions are expected to stabilize in the new year, but high leverage and deteriorating financial conditions will increase credit risks for weaker emerging markets.
Ariane Ortiz-Bollin
Vice President, Senior Credit Officer
Moody's Investors Service

Emerging markets debt accumulation was larger, faster and broader in the past 10 years than previous decades


See more on Emerging Markets here

OUTLOOK

Cyber Risk – Global

Increasing cyber risks are challenging organizations around the world to fortify their cybersecurity, particularly as remote and hybrid work arrangements create vulnerabilities to computer networks. Cyber insurance costs also continue to climb.


Work arrangements that have become increasingly commonplace during the pandemic have made cyberattacks easier and more attractive to cybercriminals, fueling a surge in ransomware and distributed denial-of-service-attacks. Those that fail to adapt to the security challenges of the changing workforce will be at increased risk of cyber incidents.
Leroy Terrelonge
Vice President, Senior Analyst
Moody's Investors Service

01 Dec

You May Be Interested in... Wednesday, 01 December | 10:00 EST

2022 Cyber Outlook: Cyber risk evolves with hybrid work and automation

OUTLOOK

China Regional and Local Governments: Lower revenue, debt-financed growth drive negative outlook

Our outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative, driven by a number of factors including lower land sale revenues and higher debt issuance to fund infrastructure spending. Regional growth will be uneven, reflecting varied economic fundamentals and carbon transition risks. Find out why RLG funding gaps will widen in the coming year.

OUTLOOK

Asia Pacific Sovereigns

Roughly half of APAC economies will undergo a growth rebound in 2022, but differing degrees of exposure to vulnerable sectors and disparate approaches to reopening will result in a multispeed recovery. Debt burdens will peak in 2022 and stabilize for most APAC economies at higher levels than before the pandemic. Read the outlook to understand how normalization will involve difficult policy choices for many governments.

OUTLOOK

Nonfinancial Companies – China

China's continued economic recovery from the pandemic is supporting the stable outlook for Chinese corporates in 2022. But, slowing GDP growth, emerging risks -- from policy transition to increased regulatory uncertainties -- and tightened funding access may influence the fortunes of the sector.

OUTLOOK

Global Credit Conditions

Steadying economic activity will enhance the credit quality of debt issuers overall in 2022. However, leverage risks will remain high. Discover how COVID-19's aftershocks will continue to reshape economies, how new technologies will accelerate shifts in corporate operating environments, and how meeting net-zero emissions targets will require massive shifts in policy and investment.

Global credit conditions in 2022 are poised to stabilize, although with stark differences across regions and economic sectors. Steadying economic activity, supported by progress in vaccinations against COVID-19, will drive enhanced credit quality of debt issuers overall. Supply chain issues, labor shortages and inflation pressures resulting from pandemic disruptions will stretch into 2022, but their effects will lessen in the second half of the year.
Elena H Duggar
Managing Director, Credit Strategy
Moody's Investors Service
OUTLOOK

Sovereigns – Global

The global economic rebound will continue into 2022, easing immediate credit pressures for governments in most regions and enabling a slow unwinding of support measures. Read the analysis to understand the ramifications of the unprecedented levels of government debt, the social and institutional costs of the pandemic, and the differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies.


Moody’s sovereign credit outlook for 2022 is stable amid the continuing economic recovery. However, governments will bear the brunt of the longer-term costs of the pandemic and will be tested by challenges such as climate change.


Moody’s outlook for sovereign creditworthiness for the next 12-18 months has changed to stable from negative as the continuing economic recovery will improve revenues and allow governments to start unwinding some of the extraordinary stimulus they provided in response to the pandemic. However, the far-reaching economic support provided to households and many sectors during the pandemic has left sovereigns with weaker balance sheets. Once growth rates return to the pre-pandemic trend, most sovereigns will struggle to maintain sufficiently large primary fiscal surpluses to recover lost fiscal space before the next major shock.
Alexander Perjessy
Vice President, Senior Analyst
Moody's Investors Service
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