Outlooks 2022

#MoodysOutlooks

About our Outlooks

Our outlooks reflect our view of conditions in global and regional sectors and subsectors for 2022. While we take a directional view of conditions for many sectors – positive, stable or negative – for others we do not. Some outlooks also contain views on multiple subsectors where our directional views differ, so a broad directional view is not available.

Cross Sector

Corporate Finance

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Automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers - Global

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Broadband - US

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Chemicals - Global

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Commodities - Latin America (includes protein, sugar ethanol and oil and gas)

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Consumer Products - Global (also Includes tobacco, beverages, durables)

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Consumer, Retail, Telecom - Latin America

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Diversified Information Technology - Global

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Diversified Manufacturing - Global

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Stable

Energy – Global

Outlook stable as earnings expansion slows, pending return in investment in production
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Homebuilding and Building Materials – US and EMEA

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Hospitality -- Global (lncludes Gaming, Lodging, Cruise and Restaurants)

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Stable

Leveraged Finance – EMEA

We expect EMEA high-yield corporate bond and leveraged loan issuance to level out in 2022 with continued support from M&A activity after a record year in 2021. . Read the report to see how vaccination rates, inflation and supply disruption might affect ongoing recovery efforts.
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Metals and Mining -Global

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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies - China

China's continued economic recovery from the pandemic is supporting the stable outlook for Chinese corporates in 2022. But, slowing GDP growth, emerging risks -- from policy transition to increased regulatory uncertainties -- and tightened funding access may influence the fortunes of the sector.
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Asia (ex Japan)

Stable Asia outlook reflects solidifying recovery, but risks abound
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA

The outlook for EMEA nonfinancial companies remains stable. This balances strong economic growth, a continued recovery in earnings and a low forecast default rate with more recent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
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Positive

Nonfinancial Companies – India

Rising vaccination rate, stabilizing consumer confidence, low interest rates and higher public spending underpin favorable credit fundamentals for nonfinancial companies
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Indonesia

Credit fundamentals will remain stable in 2022 amid strength in commodity prices, a tentative recovery in consumer spending and manageable refinancing risks
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – Latin America

Economic activity recovering, but tightening funding environment and accelerating inflation pose risks to growth
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Stable

Nonfinancial Companies – North America

Our outlook for nonfinancial companies in North America is stable on strong demand and favorable credit fundamentals, tempered by still-evolving impact of supply demand imbalances and risk of sustained inflationary pressures
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Paper and Forest Products – Global

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Passenger Airlines – Global

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Pharmaceuticals - Global

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Property - China

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REITs and REOCs - Global

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Retail - Europe

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Retail and Apparel – US

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Shipping -- Global

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Stable

Telecommunications – Asia Pacific

Revenue growth and positive free cash flows keep outlook stable
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Telecommunications – Europe

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Financial Institutions

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Asset Management - Global

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Banks - Canada

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Stable

Banks - Emerging Markets

Stable credit conditions support EM bank fundamentals in 2022
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Banks - Europe

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Banks - US & Canada

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Banks – Africa

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Banks – Asia Pacific

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Banks – Global

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Banks – Gulf Cooperation Council

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Banks – Latin America

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Stable

Closed-End Funds – US

The stable outlook reflects the economic recovery underway, the sector’s solid asset coverage ratios, and supportive financial conditions that will keep financing costs relatively low over the outlook period
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Finance Companies - Global

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Financial Institutions - China

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Health insurance - US

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Stable

Insurance - Nordics countries

Our outlook on both Nordic P&C and life insurers is stable
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Stable

Insurance – Europe

Our stable outlook for European life insurers reflects the economic recovery and the sector’s efforts to optimize its business mix. Our negative outlook for the P&C sector reflects profitability pressures as claims frequency and inflation rise.
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Insurance Brokers – Global

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Life Insurance – Global

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Life Insurance – US

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Stable

Money Market Funds – Global

Moody’s money market fund outlook is stable, previously negative
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Stable

Mortgage Insurance – US

2022 outlook remains stable as economy recovers and pandemic risks recede
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P&C Insurance - Global

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Negative

Property & Casualty Insurance - Italy

Outlook turns negative, underwriting performance to weaken in 2022
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Reinsurance – Global

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Securities Firms & Market Infrastructure Providers – US

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Project & Infrastructure Finance

Positive

Airports – Europe

2022 Outlook revised to positive in wake of traffic recovery
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Cyber Outlook

Increasing cyber risks are challenging organizations around the world to fortify their cybersecurity, particularly as remote and hybrid work arrangements create vulnerabilities to computer networks. Cyber insurance costs also continue to climb.
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Infrastructure - Australia

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Local Governments

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Power - APAC

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PPPs - Europe

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Regulated Electric & Gas Networks - Europe

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Stable

Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities – US

2022 outlook stable on sustained regulatory support for robust investment cycle
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Regulated Water Utilities – UK

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States

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Toll Roads – Europe

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Transportation Infrastructure and Project Finance - Global wrap up slides

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Unregulated Electric & Gas Utilities - Europe

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Unregulated Utilities - US

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US Airports

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US Public Ports

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US Public Power

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US Toll roads

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Utilities and Power – Global wrap up slides

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Regional & Local Government

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Chinese RLGs (Chinese translation)

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Negative

Regional & Local Governments – China

Our outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative, driven by a number of factors including lower land sale revenues and higher debt issuance to fund infrastructure spending. Regional growth will be uneven, reflecting varied economic fundamentals and carbon transition risks. Find out why RLG funding gaps will widen in the coming year.
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Stable

Regional & Local Governments – France

Our 2022 outlook for French regional & local governments (RLGs) is stable given the strong growth recovery, the normalisation of operating spending and stable debt burdens.
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Stable

Regional & Local Governments – Italy

Our 2022 outlook for Italian regional and local governments (RLGs) is stable given the expected recovery in tax revenue, still sizeable central government support and continued deleveraging.
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Stable

Regional Governments – Spain

Our 2022 outlook for Spanish regional governments is stable, reflecting healthy revenue growth, access to sizeable funding support and low borrowing costs. However, spending pressures are building and debt levels remain high.
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Stable

Regional Governments (Länder) – Germany

Our 2022 outlook for German regional governments is stable, reflecting a continued economic recovery that will increase tax revenue, reduce fiscal deficits and contain planned debt accumulation.
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Stable

UK Housing Associations

Our outlook for UK housing associations (HAs) in 2022 is stable, underpinned by a supportive operating environment, higher turnover and robust liquidity. However, growing costs pose challenges.
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Structured Finance

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ABCP - US

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ABCP — EMEA

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Aerospace & Defense – Global

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Stable

CLOs – EMEA

Current trends in leveraged lending, CLO documentation and performance will continue into 2022, with issuance set to remain strong. Meanwhile, ESG considerations will proliferate.
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CLOs – US

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Stable

CMBS – EMEA

2022 Outlook — Collateral quality and performance bifurcation by property type will continue
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CMBS and CRE CLOs – US

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Consumer ABS – US

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Corporate ABS – US

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Covered Bonds – Global

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RMBS – US

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RMBS and ABS – EMEA

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Structured Finance - Canada

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Structured Finance – Australia

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Structured Finance – China

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Structured Finance – Europe

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Structured Finance – Global

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Structured Finance – Japan

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Structured Finance – Mexico

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Sovereign

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ESG Outlook

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Stable

Global Sovereign Outlook

Economic recovery drives stable 2022 outlook for global sovereigns amid ongoing pandemic costs
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MDBs Outlook

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Stable

Regional Governments – Australia

Our 2022 outlook for Australian regional governments is stable on strengthening revenue as vaccine rollout facilitates reopening of local economy and international borders; rising debt burdens pose a challenge
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Stable

Regional Governments – Canada

Our 2022 outlook for Canadian regional governments is stable, reflecting normalized economic activity and our expectation of continued federal support to workers, businesses and provinces in case of slower-than-expected growth
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Stable

Sovereigns - Asia Pacific

Roughly half of APAC economies will undergo a growth rebound in 2022, but differing degrees of exposure to vulnerable sectors and disparate approaches to reopening will result in a multispeed recovery. Debt burdens will peak in 2022 and stabilize for most APAC economies at higher levels than before the pandemic. Read the outlook to understand how normalization will involve difficult policy choices for many governments.
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Stable

Sovereigns – Central & Eastern Europe

2022 outlook stable as strong economic activity and resilient fiscal metrics mitigate structural challenges
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Stable

Sovereigns – Commonwealth of Independent States

Stable outlook on economic recovery and beginnings of fiscal repair; pandemic and politics remain key risks
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Stable

Sovereigns – Euro area

2022 outlook is stable given favourable economic and monetary conditions, but debt levels will remain elevated for many
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Stable

Sovereigns – Gulf Cooperation Council

2022 outlook stable on supportive oil prices, higher production; carbon transition momentum magnifies longer-term risks
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Stable

Sovereigns – Latin America & Caribbean

2022 outlook stable as growth recovers and debt levels stabilize; political risks rising
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Negative

Sovereigns – Levant and North Africa

2022 outlook negative amid weak economic recovery and growing social discontent
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Negative

Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa

2022 outlook negative amid fragile recovery, persistent external risks and limited scope for adjustment
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US Public Finance