About our Outlooks
Our outlooks reflect our view of conditions in global and regional sectors and subsectors for 2022. While we take a directional view of conditions for many sectors – positive, stable or negative – for others we do not. Some outlooks also contain views on multiple subsectors where our directional views differ, so a broad directional view is not available.
Cross Sector
Stable
Cross-Sector Global Credit Conditions Outlook
Global credit conditions will stabilize in 2022 as COVID-19 uncertainties ease
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Stable
Emerging Markets - Global
After a turbulent, pandemic-induced 18 months, credit conditions for emerging markets are finally set to stabilize in the year ahead. Find out why the ability to adapt to climate change effects while simultaneously navigating rising political and social risks shape our outlook across regions, sectors and asset classes in the year ahead.
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Stable
Global Macro Outlook
Weaker than expected growth and higher than expected inflation have dented some of the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery. Access the report to see why we expect a stable growth phase through 2023 as uncertainties around the pandemic, supply chain imbalances and labor shortages gradually fade.
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Corporate Finance
Coming Soon
Automotive manufacturers and parts suppliers - Global
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Coming Soon
Broadband - US
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Coming Soon
Chemicals - Global
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Coming Soon
Commodities - Latin America (includes protein, sugar ethanol and oil and gas)
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Coming Soon
Consumer Products - Global (also Includes tobacco, beverages, durables)
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Coming Soon
Consumer, Retail, Telecom - Latin America
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Coming Soon
Diversified Information Technology - Global
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Coming Soon
Diversified Manufacturing - Global
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Stable
Energy – Global
Outlook stable as earnings expansion slows, pending return in investment in production
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Coming Soon
Homebuilding and Building Materials – US and EMEA
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Coming Soon
Hospitality -- Global (lncludes Gaming, Lodging, Cruise and Restaurants)
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Stable
Leveraged Finance – EMEA
We expect EMEA high-yield corporate bond and leveraged loan issuance to level out in 2022 with continued support from M&A activity after a record year in 2021. . Read the report to see how vaccination rates, inflation and supply disruption might affect ongoing recovery efforts.
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Coming Soon
Metals and Mining -Global
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies - China
China's continued economic recovery from the pandemic is supporting the stable outlook for Chinese corporates in 2022. But, slowing GDP growth, emerging risks -- from policy transition to increased regulatory uncertainties -- and tightened funding access may influence the fortunes of the sector.
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies – Asia (ex Japan)
Stable Asia outlook reflects solidifying recovery, but risks abound
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies – EMEA
The outlook for EMEA nonfinancial companies remains stable. This balances strong economic growth, a continued recovery in earnings and a low forecast default rate with more recent inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
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Positive
Nonfinancial Companies – India
Rising vaccination rate, stabilizing consumer confidence, low interest rates and higher public spending underpin favorable credit fundamentals for nonfinancial companies
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies – Indonesia
Credit fundamentals will remain stable in 2022 amid strength in commodity prices, a tentative recovery in consumer spending and manageable refinancing risks
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies – Latin America
Economic activity recovering, but tightening funding environment and accelerating inflation pose risks to growth
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Stable
Nonfinancial Companies – North America
Our outlook for nonfinancial companies in North America is stable on strong demand and favorable credit fundamentals, tempered by still-evolving impact of supply demand imbalances and risk of sustained inflationary pressures
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Coming Soon
Paper and Forest Products – Global
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Coming Soon
Passenger Airlines – Global
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Coming Soon
Pharmaceuticals - Global
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Coming Soon
Property - China
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Coming Soon
REITs and REOCs - Global
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Coming Soon
Retail - Europe
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Coming Soon
Retail and Apparel – US
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Coming Soon
Shipping -- Global
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Stable
Telecommunications – Asia Pacific
Revenue growth and positive free cash flows keep outlook stable
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Coming Soon
Telecommunications – Europe
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Financial Institutions
Coming Soon
Asset Management - Global
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Coming Soon
Banks - Canada
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Stable
Banks - Emerging Markets
Stable credit conditions support EM bank fundamentals in 2022
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Coming Soon
Banks - Europe
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Coming Soon
Banks - US & Canada
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Coming Soon
Banks – Africa
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Coming Soon
Banks – Asia Pacific
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Coming Soon
Banks – Global
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Coming Soon
Banks – Gulf Cooperation Council
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Coming Soon
Banks – Latin America
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Stable
Closed-End Funds – US
The stable outlook reflects the economic recovery underway, the sector’s solid asset coverage ratios, and supportive financial conditions that will keep financing costs relatively low over the outlook period
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Coming Soon
Finance Companies - Global
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Coming Soon
Financial Institutions - China
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Coming Soon
Health insurance - US
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Stable
Insurance - Nordics countries
Our outlook on both Nordic P&C and life insurers is stable
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Stable
Insurance – Europe
Our stable outlook for European life insurers reflects the economic recovery and the sector’s efforts to optimize its business mix. Our negative outlook for the P&C sector reflects profitability pressures as claims frequency and inflation rise.
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Coming Soon
Insurance Brokers – Global
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Coming Soon
Life Insurance – Global
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Coming Soon
Life Insurance – US
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Stable
Money Market Funds – Global
Moody’s money market fund outlook is stable, previously negative
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Stable
Mortgage Insurance – US
2022 outlook remains stable as economy recovers and pandemic risks recede
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Coming Soon
P&C Insurance - Global
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Negative
Property & Casualty Insurance - Italy
Outlook turns negative, underwriting performance to weaken in 2022
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Coming Soon
Reinsurance – Global
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Coming Soon
Securities Firms & Market Infrastructure Providers – US
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Project & Infrastructure Finance
Positive
Airports – Europe
2022 Outlook revised to positive in wake of traffic recovery
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Cyber Outlook
Increasing cyber risks are challenging organizations around the world to fortify their cybersecurity, particularly as remote and hybrid work arrangements create vulnerabilities to computer networks. Cyber insurance costs also continue to climb.
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Coming Soon
Infrastructure - Australia
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Coming Soon
Local Governments
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Coming Soon
Power - APAC
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Coming Soon
PPPs - Europe
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Coming Soon
Regulated Electric & Gas Networks - Europe
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Stable
Regulated Electric and Gas Utilities – US
2022 outlook stable on sustained regulatory support for robust investment cycle
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Coming Soon
Regulated Water Utilities – UK
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Coming Soon
States
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Coming Soon
Toll Roads – Europe
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Coming Soon
Transportation Infrastructure and Project Finance - Global wrap up slides
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Coming Soon
Unregulated Electric & Gas Utilities - Europe
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Coming Soon
Unregulated Utilities - US
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Coming Soon
US Airports
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Coming Soon
US Public Ports
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Coming Soon
US Public Power
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Coming Soon
US Toll roads
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Coming Soon
Utilities and Power – Global wrap up slides
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Regional & Local Government
Coming Soon
Chinese RLGs (Chinese translation)
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Negative
Regional & Local Governments – China
Our outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative, driven by a number of factors including lower land sale revenues and higher debt issuance to fund infrastructure spending. Regional growth will be uneven, reflecting varied economic fundamentals and carbon transition risks. Find out why RLG funding gaps will widen in the coming year.
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Stable
Regional & Local Governments – France
Our 2022 outlook for French regional & local governments (RLGs) is stable given the strong growth recovery, the normalisation of operating spending and stable debt burdens.
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Stable
Regional & Local Governments – Italy
Our 2022 outlook for Italian regional and local governments (RLGs) is stable given the expected recovery in tax revenue, still sizeable central government support and continued deleveraging.
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Stable
Regional Governments – Spain
Our 2022 outlook for Spanish regional governments is stable, reflecting healthy revenue growth, access to sizeable funding support and low borrowing costs. However, spending pressures are building and debt levels remain high.
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Stable
Regional Governments (Länder) – Germany
Our 2022 outlook for German regional governments is stable, reflecting a continued economic recovery that will increase tax revenue, reduce fiscal deficits and contain planned debt accumulation.
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Stable
UK Housing Associations
Our outlook for UK housing associations (HAs) in 2022 is stable, underpinned by a supportive operating environment, higher turnover and robust liquidity. However, growing costs pose challenges.
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Structured Finance
Coming Soon
ABCP - US
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Coming Soon
ABCP — EMEA
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Coming Soon
Aerospace & Defense – Global
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Stable
CLOs – EMEA
Current trends in leveraged lending, CLO documentation and performance will continue into 2022, with issuance set to remain strong. Meanwhile, ESG considerations will proliferate.
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Coming Soon
CLOs – US
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Stable
CMBS – EMEA
2022 Outlook — Collateral quality and performance bifurcation by property type will continue
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Coming Soon
CMBS and CRE CLOs – US
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Coming Soon
Consumer ABS – US
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Coming Soon
Corporate ABS – US
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Coming Soon
Covered Bonds – Global
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Coming Soon
RMBS – US
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Coming Soon
RMBS and ABS – EMEA
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance - Canada
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – Australia
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – China
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – Europe
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – Global
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – Japan
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Coming Soon
Structured Finance – Mexico
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Sovereign
Coming Soon
ESG Outlook
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Stable
Global Sovereign Outlook
Economic recovery drives stable 2022 outlook for global sovereigns amid ongoing pandemic costs
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Coming Soon
MDBs Outlook
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Stable
Regional Governments – Australia
Our 2022 outlook for Australian regional governments is stable on strengthening revenue as vaccine rollout facilitates reopening of local economy and international borders; rising debt burdens pose a challenge
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Stable
Regional Governments – Canada
Our 2022 outlook for Canadian regional governments is stable, reflecting normalized economic activity and our expectation of continued federal support to workers, businesses and provinces in case of slower-than-expected growth
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Stable
Sovereigns - Asia Pacific
Roughly half of APAC economies will undergo a growth rebound in 2022, but differing degrees of exposure to vulnerable sectors and disparate approaches to reopening will result in a multispeed recovery. Debt burdens will peak in 2022 and stabilize for most APAC economies at higher levels than before the pandemic. Read the outlook to understand how normalization will involve difficult policy choices for many governments.
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Stable
Sovereigns – Central & Eastern Europe
2022 outlook stable as strong economic activity and resilient fiscal metrics mitigate structural challenges
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Stable
Sovereigns – Commonwealth of Independent States
Stable outlook on economic recovery and beginnings of fiscal repair; pandemic and politics remain key risks
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Stable
Sovereigns – Euro area
2022 outlook is stable given favourable economic and monetary conditions, but debt levels will remain elevated for many
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Stable
Sovereigns – Gulf Cooperation Council
2022 outlook stable on supportive oil prices, higher production; carbon transition momentum magnifies longer-term risks
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Stable
Sovereigns – Latin America & Caribbean
2022 outlook stable as growth recovers and debt levels stabilize; political risks rising
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Negative
Sovereigns – Levant and North Africa
2022 outlook negative amid weak economic recovery and growing social discontent
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Negative
Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa
2022 outlook negative amid fragile recovery, persistent external risks and limited scope for adjustment
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US Public Finance
Coming Soon
Healthcare
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Coming Soon
Higher Education
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Stable
Mass Transit – US
2022 outlook stable driven by federal aid and continued tax growth
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Stable
Nonprofit Organizations
2022 outlook stable with revenue recovery despite lingering risks
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Stable
State Housing Finance Agencies – US
2022 outlook remains stable as portfolios recover and strong issuance continues
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Coming Soon
US Public Finance
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Work arrangements that have become increasingly commonplace during the pandemic have made cyberattacks easier and more attractive to cybercriminals, fueling a surge in ransomware and distributed denial-of-service-attacks. Those that fail to adapt to the security challenges of the changing workforce will be at increased risk of cyber incidents.
Cyber Risk – Global
2022 Outlook – Workplace shifts open new
attack channels, while insurance costs rise and coverage narrows
Credit conditions are expected to stabilize in the new year, but high leverage and deteriorating financial conditions will increase credit risks for weaker emerging markets.
Emerging Markets Outlook
After a turbulent, pandemic-induced 18 months, credit conditions for emerging markets are finally set to stabilize in the year ahead. Find out why the ability to adapt to climate change effects while simultaneously navigating rising political and social risks shape our outlook across regions, sectors and asset classes in the year ahead.
Moody's expects G-20 economies to grow 4.4% collectively in 2022 and then by 3.2% in 2023, driven by strong household spending, inventory restocking and increased capital spending. The current mismatch between supply and demand as well as persistent labor market shortages should improve over coming quarters, allowing supply-side inflation pressures to moderate
Global Macro Outlook
Weaker than expected growth and higher than expected inflation have dented some of the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery. Access the report to see why we expect a stable growth phase through 2023 as uncertainties around the pandemic, supply chain imbalances and labor shortages gradually fade.
Moody’s outlook for sovereign creditworthiness for the next 12-18 months has changed to stable from negative as the continuing economic recovery will improve revenues and allow governments to start unwinding some of the extraordinary stimulus they provided in response to the pandemic. However, the far-reaching economic support provided to households and many sectors during the pandemic has left sovereigns with weaker balance sheets. Once growth rates return to the pre-pandemic trend, most sovereigns will struggle to maintain sufficiently large primary fiscal surpluses to recover lost fiscal space before the next major shock.
Sovereigns – Global
The global economic rebound will continue into 2022, easing immediate credit pressures for governments in most regions and enabling a slow unwinding of support measures. Read the analysis to understand the ramifications of the unprecedented levels of government debt, the social and institutional costs of the pandemic, and the differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies.
Global credit conditions in 2022 are poised to stabilize, although with stark differences across regions and economic sectors. Steadying economic activity, supported by progress in vaccinations against COVID-19, will drive enhanced credit quality of debt issuers overall. Supply chain issues, labor shortages and inflation pressures resulting from pandemic disruptions will stretch into 2022, but their effects will lessen in the second half of the year.
Global Credit Conditions
Steadying economic activity will enhance the credit quality of debt issuers overall in 2022. However, leverage risks will remain high. Discover how COVID-19's aftershocks will continue to reshape economies, how new technologies will accelerate shifts in corporate operating environments, and how meeting net-zero emissions targets will require massive shifts in policy and investment.
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