About our Outlooks
Our outlooks reflect our view of conditions in global and regional sectors and subsectors for 2022. While we take a directional view of conditions for many sectors – positive, stable or negative – for others we do not. Some outlooks also contain views on multiple subsectors where our directional views differ, so a broad directional view is not available.
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Work arrangements that have become increasingly commonplace during the pandemic have made cyberattacks easier and more attractive to cybercriminals, fueling a surge in ransomware and distributed denial-of-service-attacks. Those that fail to adapt to the security challenges of the changing workforce will be at increased risk of cyber incidents.
Cyber Risk – Global
2022 Outlook – Workplace shifts open new attack channels, while insurance costs rise and coverage narrows
Credit conditions are expected to stabilize in the new year, but high leverage and deteriorating financial conditions will increase credit risks for weaker emerging markets.
Emerging Markets Outlook
After a turbulent, pandemic-induced 18 months, credit conditions for emerging markets are finally set to stabilize in the year ahead. Find out why the ability to adapt to climate change effects while simultaneously navigating rising political and social risks shape our outlook across regions, sectors and asset classes in the year ahead.
Moody's expects G-20 economies to grow 4.4% collectively in 2022 and then by 3.2% in 2023, driven by strong household spending, inventory restocking and increased capital spending. The current mismatch between supply and demand as well as persistent labor market shortages should improve over coming quarters, allowing supply-side inflation pressures to moderate
Global Macro Outlook
Weaker than expected growth and higher than expected inflation have dented some of the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery. Access the report to see why we expect a stable growth phase through 2023 as uncertainties around the pandemic, supply chain imbalances and labor shortages gradually fade.
Moody’s outlook for sovereign creditworthiness for the next 12-18 months has changed to stable from negative as the continuing economic recovery will improve revenues and allow governments to start unwinding some of the extraordinary stimulus they provided in response to the pandemic. However, the far-reaching economic support provided to households and many sectors during the pandemic has left sovereigns with weaker balance sheets. Once growth rates return to the pre-pandemic trend, most sovereigns will struggle to maintain sufficiently large primary fiscal surpluses to recover lost fiscal space before the next major shock.
Sovereigns – Global
The global economic rebound will continue into 2022, easing immediate credit pressures for governments in most regions and enabling a slow unwinding of support measures. Read the analysis to understand the ramifications of the unprecedented levels of government debt, the social and institutional costs of the pandemic, and the differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies.
Global credit conditions in 2022 are poised to stabilize, although with stark differences across regions and economic sectors. Steadying economic activity, supported by progress in vaccinations against COVID-19, will drive enhanced credit quality of debt issuers overall. Supply chain issues, labor shortages and inflation pressures resulting from pandemic disruptions will stretch into 2022, but their effects will lessen in the second half of the year.
Global Credit Conditions
Steadying economic activity will enhance the credit quality of debt issuers overall in 2022. However, leverage risks will remain high. Discover how COVID-19's aftershocks will continue to reshape economies, how new technologies will accelerate shifts in corporate operating environments, and how meeting net-zero emissions targets will require massive shifts in policy and investment.
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