Global Emerging Markets Summit 2022
Recovery or relapse: Decoding EM risk
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09:00
Registration | Coffee & networking
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09:30
Welcome remarks
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09:35
The emerging market credit risk story: A preview of the next chapter
Economic scars from the pandemic, a shaky geopolitical landscape, and diminishing returns from globalization. Will the next chapter in the emerging market story be as gloomy as the last one felt? Or is there a plot twist ahead?
- What do Moody’s rating trends and default studies foretell?
- BRICS were the EM story of the early aughts, who will take center stage in coming years?
- What has the Russia-Ukraine crisis changed for EMs, and what remains unchanged?
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09:55
Spotlight conversation with Robert D. Kaplan, Senior adviser, Eurasia Group
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world order
- How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict evolve? How will it end?
- As alliances across Europe, US, Russia, and China change, which emerging markets will improve their credit standing?
- Food security and inflation hit emerging markets particularly hard. Which emerging markets are most susceptible to heightened social and political risks?
- How will carbon transition, technology and cyber risks shape risks in emerging markets?
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10:30
Break & networking
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11:15
What market experts are watching
With global inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, monetary policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty heightening market volatility, which EM asset classes offer the best value in 2022?
- What macro strategies and trades will define the post-COVID market?
- What are the outlooks for local currency and frontier markets?
- Will ESG investments lose ground in certain EM markets in 2022?
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12:00
Are EM issuers ready for rapid carbon transition?
The shift to a net zero global economy is well underway and accelerating. As carbon-intensive sectors and countries undergo rapid transformation, how exposed are emerging markets and which issuers are best prepared to manage transition risks?
- Can the credit quality of EM hydrocarbon-reliant sovereigns withstand faster transition pathways?
- Which EM sectors and companies are best positioned to adjust to tighter government policy, rising market pressure and technological disruption?
- How will transition risks influence institutional investment flows into EM credit?
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12:45
Lunch
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14:00
Regional breakout sessions round 1
Deep dive into key credit drivers across regions, countries and sectors. These highly interactive sessions will address some of your most pressing questions on key credit hot spots.
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14:00
China
Credit outlook across sectors amid a shifting geopolitical landscape, slowing growth, a Covid resurgence and tightening financing conditions
- Slowing macroeconomic growth and renewed Covid lockdowns resulting in financial and trade disruption
- Impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Credit impact of tight financing conditions on the property sector and what this means for China’s overall economy
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14:00
Turkey & GCC
Challenges and opportunities given geo-political developments
- How is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affecting Turkish policies and the financial sector?
- How are Turkish entities weathering the very high levels of inflation and current macro-economic uncertainties?
- Triple digit oil prices - the boon for the GCC sovereigns?
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14:00
South East Asia & India
Credit impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion, credit outlook of key sectors, and carbon transition
- Macroeconomic and financial impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Credit impact of higher inflation and higher commodity prices across sectors
- Outlook for structural reforms and their potential impact on medium-term growth
- Which countries, companies and banks are best positioned to weather the indirect impact of the crisis and recover from the pandemic
- Carbon transition risks
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14:45
Break
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15:00
Regional breakout sessions round 2
Deep dive into key credit drivers across regions, countries and sectors. These highly interactive sessions will address some of your most pressing questions on key credit hot spots.
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15:00
Ukraine & CIS and CEE
Credit impact of Russia-Ukraine military conflict on Ukraine, Central and Eastern Europe
- How the military conflict evolves and its impact in Ukraine’s credit quality
- Spillovers across CEE via macroeconomic, geopolitical, trade, financial and security channels
- Banking defaults in Ukraine and expectations across the region
- Impact on gas transportation and other utilities
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15:00
Latin America
Commodity price shocks, inflation and political risks: are there winners in Latin America?
- Macroeconomic and financial impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Will economic growth, profits and asset quality suffer?
- Which countries, companies and banks are best positioned to weather the indirect impact of the crisis and recover from the pandemic?
- Domestic political risks: Zooming in on the countries with potential risks of material changes to banks and companies’ operating environment
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15:00
South Africa
Credit impact of rising government debt, tight financing conditions, sluggish economic growth and social & political risks
- Macroeconomic and financial impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in South Africa
- Credit impact of a windfall derived from higher commodity prices, rising government debt, tighter financing conditions, sluggish economic growth
- How companies, banks and infrastructure sectors are positioned to weather the deteriorating global macroeconomic environment
- Country’s prospects on key economic reforms and the risks derived from social and political obstacles
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15:45
Event ends
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