As the global economy recalibrates following the events of 2020, recovery remains patchy and uneven, in particular for emerging and frontier nations. What are the key opportunities and challenges in the current market? Investors and issuers face more questions than answers. Join us live as we answer these questions and provide our outlook for emerging sovereign and corporate credit in the next six to twelve months.SIGN UP
Welcome remarks - Emerging Markets in 2021
Moody’s Credit Compass: Are Emerging Markets leading or lagging the global economic recovery?
Indications suggest that global growth is slowly starting to recover from the lows of 2020 thanks to fiscal and monetary stimulus, positive vaccine developments, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Against this background emerging markets face both opportunities and challenges as they navigate through the rest of the year.
- Which countries and sectors are already accelerating their post-pandemic recovery, and which are lagging?
- What drives the markets at the forefront of recovery, and what holds back others?
- How do Emerging Markets rating and default trends compare to those in advanced economies?
- Can current data and models tell us which economic scars will heal, and which will leave a permanent mark?
Rebuilding Emerging Markets post COVID-19 - When and where will the rebound happen?
Emerging Market Debt Sustainability - Assessing progress, priorities and the prospects for pitfalls
Before the COVID-19 outbreak, debt was already at record highs in emerging and developing economies. While low interest rates afford stronger Emerging Markets considerable capacity to stabilize debt ratios without excessively painful fiscal adjustment, the position of some frontier markets is far more precarious in a post-pandemic world
- What are the risks that interest rates will rise? How quickly would rising rates challenge debt sustainability and which countries are most exposed?
- DSSI, Common Framework debt treatment, redirecting excess SDRs – what are the risks for private creditors in frontier market relief initiatives?
- Has the increase in sovereign debt defaults peaked or should markets brace for more?
- To what extent are Emerging Markets governments taking the opportunity to reset towards sustainable growth priorities to drive long-term recovery?
- What is the outlook for Emerging Markets corporate debt in the context of sovereign debt challenges?
Moody’s View | Deep Dive into near term risks vs. medium term risks
- Economic recovery to be punctuated with market volatility – where’s the risk vs. value?
- What are the long term scars that COVID-19 has inflicted on Emerging Markets ?
- ESG & Emerging Markets – Near Term & Long term issues
Investor Insights for 2021 - Finding value amid a patchy recovery in Emerging Markets
Though the return to growth for emerging and frontier markets continues to be uneven, some economies and sectors do present investors with yield opportunities. But risks remain.
- Which macro strategies and trades will define the 2021 Emerging Markets recovery?
- How will the pandemic, US inflation risk, US monetary policy and the dollar outlook shape Emerging Markets debt markets?
- Which countries and sectors offer the best potential, and which frontier markets will stand out in 2021?
- What is the outlook for local currency debt?
- How much risk is too much in high-yield Emerging Markets debt?
Energy transition in Emerging Markets – Risks and Rewards for Oil Exporting Countries
The momentum driving the path to zero carbon has placed a renewed sense of urgency around the need for diversification in oil-exporting nations. This is a paradigm shift which likely to impact the behavior of all market players.
- How realistic is 2050 as a target for net zero?
- How are Sovereign owned oil companies responding to the changing landscape?
- Which countries/companies are best positioned for the path ahead?
- To what extent will investor pressure impact Emerging Markets market responses?
ESG for Emerging Market Sovereigns – Climate crisis, heightened social risks, mixed governance: What scope for differentiated credit impacts?
- What countries are likely to fare better in the face of social risks exacerbated by the pandemic?
- What Emerging Market sovereigns are facing a climate crisis, with what credit implications?
- How do governance strengths and weaknesses mitigate or amplify environmental and social risks across countries?
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