Deep Dive: Latin America
Will strong growth alleviate political crisis?
After a relatively strong economic rebound in 2021, growth will moderate in 2022, returning to pre-pandemic performance for most sovereigns, supported by high commodity prices and strong recovery in the US. However, political risks have risen as the pandemic shock exacerbated pre-existing social pressures across the region. Policy space will be constrained by seemingly competing forces; the need for fiscal consolidation and social demands for better services and more equitable societies. How will policymakers balance these demands, and what is the likely impact on sovereign credit profiles post-pandemic?
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SpeakersSamar Maziad Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Jaime Reusche Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Investors Service
Renzo Merino Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Investors Service
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Dr. Samar Maziad is a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign RiskGroup in New York. She is a lead credit risk analyst for a portfolio of Latin American sovereigns and multilateral development banks, including Brazil and others. Prior tojoining Moody’s, Dr. Maziad was a Senior Economist at the International MonetaryFund, where she covered a wide range of macroeconomic and financial stability issues in emerging markets including China and Latin America.
Dr. Maziad is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements related to Latin America and emerging markets. Ms. Maziad holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of St. Andrews in the UK.
Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has 11 years of industry experience. Mr. Reusche is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Investors Service. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.