Weakening perceptions about the economy and their own households' situations pose risks to consumer discretionary spending, with a cooling job market likely to dampen sentiments further. Moody's economists and credit analysts explore the implications of shifting economic trends among US households.
Topics:
- What the latest macro data foretells for the US consumer?
- Impact to consumer sentiment and spending as inflation softens and unemployment rises
- As spending eases, which sectors face the largest impacts from the cutbacks
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SpeakersWarren Kornfeld Senior Vice President, Banking, Financial Institutions Moody's Ratings
Jody Shenn Vice President - Senior Analyst, Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service
Mickey Chadha Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Moody's Investors Service
Scott Hoyt Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's Analytics
Madhavi Bokil Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy and Research Moody's Ratings
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Warren Kornfeld is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Financial Institutions Group covering mortgage, credit card, student loan banks and finance companies as well as Government Sponsored Enterprises (FHLBanks, Farm Credit, Fannie and Freddie).
Prior to joining the Financial Institutions Group, Warren was a Managing Director for Structured Finance Administration overseeing key strategic initiatives and prior to that Warren co-headed the Residential Mortgage- Backed Securities (RMBS) team as well as headed up the U.S. Servicer Ratings team.
Warren joined Moody’s in 2001. Prior to Moody’s, Warren held senior investment banking positions with William Blair & Co., The Industrial Bank of Japan and Bickford & Partners focusing on a securitizations of a wide range of asset types, including residential mortgages, equipment lease, auto loan and lease, consumer assets and commercial receivables.
Warren holds a B.S. in Finance and Decision Sciences from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Jody Shenn is a Vice President – Senior Analyst in the Structured Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service. Mr. Shenn specializes in producing research across a range of both consumer and commercial asset securitization sectors. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2015, Mr. Shenn spent nine years covering residential mortgages, securitization and other fixed-income market topics as a journalist at Bloomberg News. Prior to that, Mr. Shenn worked as a reporter and/or editor at publications including American Banker, The Wall Street Journal and The Southampton Press. He is a graduate of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York
Mickey Chadha is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer on the Corporate Finance Team. He is the lead analyst covering a portfolio of bog box, value, off-price and specialty retail issuers. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2010 Mickey spent about 20 years in corporate and investment banking. Mickey began his banking career at First Fidelity Bank (now part of Wells Fargo) and following his tenure at First Fidelity, he worked at different banking institutions including Sumitomo Mitsubishi Banking Corporation and The Royal Bank of Canada. Just before joining Moody’s Mickey was a Portfolio Manager and Senior Vice President at IKB Capital Corporation managing a portfolio of high yield and investment grade credits. Mickey holds an M.B.A from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College, New York and a post graduate diploma in credit analysis and banking from New York University.
Scott Hoyt is senior director for Moody’s Analytics, responsible for the firm’s consumer forecasts and analysis. Dr. Hoyt contributes to Economic View, speaks at conferences, and oversees the production of the U.S. economic forecast. He has done custom modeling for credit and consumer sector clients. His projects include estimating market size geographically for several large retail clients, analysis of spending by demographic groups and implications for the spending outlook, credit portfolio modeling, and delinquency and loss modeling. His areas of expertise include consumer spending, retail sales and industry performance, consumer credit, household income, demographics, and other aspects of consumer behavior and its macroeconomic and industry implications.
Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Dr. Hoyt spent five years as an economist for J.C. Penney, where he did extensive work supporting the company's strategic planning efforts, real estate research department, merchandise departments, and credit department. He received his PhD and MA in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and his BA summa cum laude from Bates College.
Madhavi Bokil is a Senior Vice President, heading the Macro Research Team of the Credit Strategy and Standards Group. She is a member of Moody’s Macro Board and the lead author of Moody’s Global Macroeconomic Outlook.
Before joining Moody’s Ratings Madhavi held positions as Senior Economist at AIG and GE Capital, undertaking global macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and CCAR stress testing. Prior to that she held a faculty position in the Department of Economics at Clark University, where she pursued research in and taught International Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics. She holds a BA in Economics from Fergusson College, Pune, India, a MA in Economics from the University of Mumbai, India and a PhD in International Economics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.