Economic, Real Estate and Credit Outlook in Wilmington
In-person event | Chase Center on the Riverfront | Wilmington, DE
Please note: Registration will close on June 14.
ABOUT
Recession risks are uncomfortably high, as the economy struggles with high inflation, and high rising interest rates. And while recession is not inevitable, the next 12-18 months will be a difficult time for the economy, the financial system, and real estate markets.
We're meeting in person for the first time in 3 years to discuss the economy’s prospects. Chief Economist, Mark Zandi, and economic experts from across Moody's Analytics will be there to provide their insights and answer your questions. During the event, we will discuss:
AGENDA
Agenda
10:00
- 11:00
EDT
Business Cycle’s Moment of Truth
Recession fears have been paramount since inflation surged and the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates more than a year ago. The recent banking crisis highlights the stresses building in the financial system as a result. But while the economy will struggle in the coming year, it has a fighting chance to get through without suffering an outright downturn.
11:00
- 11:45
EDT
U.S. Regional Outlook: Shocks, Setbacks and Successes
Regional economies in the U.S. have navigated seismic shifts in recent years and plenty of uncertainty remains. From the permanent changes wrought by the pandemic to the impacts of inflation on key drivers like tech, finance, and housing, the road ahead looks bumpy for much of the nation. This session will discuss the short- and long-term prospects for different areas of the country as they navigate a series of foreboding headwinds. Resiliency and vulnerability to near-term issues along with longer-term concerns like climate change will be covered.
11:45
- 12:45
EDT
Lunch
12:45
- 13:30
EDT
Housing Outlook: Going Nowhere Fast?
Home sales and house prices have fallen sharply over the last year. Rising interest rates and falling mortgage payment affordability have sharply reduced the number of qualified homebuyers. And, existing homeowners are in no hurry to sell after locking in record low interest rates. How will this standoff end? This session will take stock of current trends in sales and construction and provide lenders, builders, and investors with insights into the future trajectory of home prices to facilitate investment, loan origination, and loss mitigation decisions.
13:30
- 14:15
EDT
All Eyes on CRE: Banking Troubles, Cap Rates, and the Future
The news about recent bank failures has put all eyes on the Commercial Real Estate industry. What impacts will future banking stress have on CRE properties and professionals? We will discuss potential effects on property valuation, cap rates, and what potential instability might mean for the future.
14:15
- 14:30
EDT
Break
14:30
- 15:15
EDT
Navigating Choppy Waters of the Corporate Credit Cycle
Corporate credit in the US has proven to be remarkably resilient to macroeconomic uncertainty and the sharp tightening of monetary policy. The credit cycle, however, has reached an inflection point, and the question now is how much credit risk will rise going forward. In this session we will draw connections between the business and credit cycles, look at the factors that are driving the credit cycle, and consider how different economic scenarios may impact corporate credit risk.
15:15
- 16:00
EDT
Consumer Credit – Cautiously Optimistic
After two years of robust gains, the consumer credit cycle is rolling over. A combination of higher borrowing costs and cooling job market will lead to slower originations growth and deteriorating performance. Both borrowers and lenders face a number of hurdles in the coming quarters, particularly the impact of higher rates, tightening by creditors, the ending of student loan accommodations and the impact of already rising delinquency and default rates.
16:00
- 16:10
EDT
Break
16:10
- 17:00
EDT
Fireside Chat with Mark Zandi and Doug Simons, Senior Markets and Policy Fellow at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Join Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, and Doug Simons, Senior Markets and Policy Fellow at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for a fireside chat to discuss a range of top-of-mind issues related to the financial system. Doug has been an active participant in the financial system for more than 3 decades, and is an especially keen observer of the financial system’s strengths and weaknesses.
17:00
- 18:00
EDT
Close & Networking Reception
SPEAKERS
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Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a co founder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial market sand public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets.
A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation.
Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC,the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the“clearest guide” to the financial crisis.Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.
Adam Kamins is a director at Moody’s Analytics. He manages the firm’s U.S. subnational forecasting process and covers a wide variety of topics related to regional economics while frequently writing and presenting about both the New York and broader Northeast economies. Adam is also responsible for state and metro area scenarios, analyzing and forecasting commercial real estate prices and activity, and quantifying the impact of external events such as natural disasters. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Adam was a research manager at the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, where he analyzed urban economies. He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a bachelor's degree in quantitative economics from Tufts University.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Thomas P LaSalvia, Ph.D. is a Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, specializing in Commercial Real Estate. Thomas, a former professor, brings his pedagogical prowess to his extensive research into the marketplace, with a specific focus on the multifamily sector. His work is frequently published in a variety of periodicals, and he spends a vast amount of time presenting his findings to a variety of industry and academic professionals. Prior to joining Moody's Analytics, he served in a consulting role for the firm while teaching classes in foundational economics and urban economics at The College of William & Mary.
Kyle Hillman is an economist with the Business Analytics group of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester PA. Kyle works on consumer credit modeling and analysis with CreditForecast.com, has built stress-testing models of consumer loan performance for various consulting projects, and contributes commentary pieces covering trends in multiple credit markets. He also has experience working on the U.S. macroeconomic forecast and alternative scenario teams. After graduating from Saint Joseph’s University with a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy, Kyle received his master’s degree in economics from Temple University.
Dr. Juan M. Licari is a managing director at Moody's Analytics. Juan and team-members are responsible for the research and analytics that enable our quantitative solutions. The team helps our customers solve complex business problems; adding value through data and analytics.
The analytics team specializes in solutions that help (i) understand, (ii) quantify, (iii) manage, and (iv) integrate risk. When it comes to specific methods to be selected the team has an open-mind approach; leveraging alternative tools ranging from traditional statistics & econometrics to machine learning & AI data-driven algorithms.
The solutions enabled by the team’s analytics are leveraged by our valued customers into core practices such as credit origination & pricing, stress testing & forecasting, optimal investment & portfolio management, ESG risk/opportunity quantification, capital & liquidity adequacy and cash-flow analysis.
A key value added to existing modelling methodologies comes from the explicit connection to the underlying economic cycle. This forward-looking philosophy allows decision-makers to plan for alternative scenarios and anticipate changes in credit and business conditions.
Juan is actively involved in communicating the team’s research and methodologies to the market. He is a public speaker at risk management events and economic conferences worldwide. Dr. Licari is a thought-leader in the risk management industry with frequently cited research publications.
As for his education, Dr. Licari holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated Summa Cum Laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina. He is currently enrolled at the Executive MBA from the University of Cambridge, expecting to graduate in 2023. Juan is a proud Latino and ambassador for Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion initiatives.
Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a co founder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial market sand public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets.
A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation.
Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC,the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the“clearest guide” to the financial crisis.Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.
Doug Simons is a Senior Markets and Policy Fellow in the Markets Office at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In this capacity he is responsible for advising the Director and his team on a range of issues connected to the banking industry. Key areas of focus include deposit account pricing and developments in the mortgage industry. He also works on topics related to Director Chopra’s role as a member of the Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
Doug entered government service in 2022 following a thirty-year career in investment banking. After beginning his career in the securitization business, he shifted to an advisory role and worked in the Financial Institutions Group at Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and UBS. His clients included a range of the largest U.S. regional banks and diversified financial institutions. In addition to working on a variety of M&A and capital raising transactions, Doug led these firms’ efforts advising bank clients on regulatory dialogues related to risk management and capital structure.
Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a co founder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005.
Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial market sand public policy. His recent research has focused on mortgage finance reform and the determinants of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy. He has analyzed the economic impact of various tax and government spending policies and assessed the appropriate monetary policy response to bubbles in asset markets.
A trusted adviser to policymakers and an influential source of economic analysis for businesses, journalists and the public, Dr. Zandi frequently testifies before Congress on topics including the economic outlook, the nation’s daunting fiscal challenges, the merits of fiscal stimulus, financial regulatory reform, and foreclosure mitigation.
Dr. Zandi conducts regular briefings on the economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. He is on the board of directors of MGIC,the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and The Reinvestment Fund, a large CDFI that makes investments in disadvantaged neighborhoods. He is often quoted in national and global publications and interviewed by major news media outlets, and is a frequent guest on CNBC, NPR, Meet the Press, CNN, and various other national networks and news programs.
Dr. Zandi is the author of Paying the Price: Ending the Great Recession and Beginning a New American Century, which provides an assessment of the monetary and fiscal policy response to the Great Recession. His other book, Financial Shock: A 360º Look at the Subprime Mortgage Implosion, and How to Avoid the Next Financial Crisis, is described by the New York Times as the“clearest guide” to the financial crisis.Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania. He lives with his wife and three children in the suburbs of Philadelphia.
Adam Kamins is a director at Moody’s Analytics. He manages the firm’s U.S. subnational forecasting process and covers a wide variety of topics related to regional economics while frequently writing and presenting about both the New York and broader Northeast economies. Adam is also responsible for state and metro area scenarios, analyzing and forecasting commercial real estate prices and activity, and quantifying the impact of external events such as natural disasters. Prior to joining Moody’s Analytics, Adam was a research manager at the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, where he analyzed urban economies. He holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a bachelor's degree in quantitative economics from Tufts University.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Kyle Hillman is an economist with the Business Analytics group of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester PA. Kyle works on consumer credit modeling and analysis with CreditForecast.com, has built stress-testing models of consumer loan performance for various consulting projects, and contributes commentary pieces covering trends in multiple credit markets. He also has experience working on the U.S. macroeconomic forecast and alternative scenario teams. After graduating from Saint Joseph’s University with a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy, Kyle received his master’s degree in economics from Temple University.
Thomas P LaSalvia, Ph.D. is a Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, specializing in Commercial Real Estate. Thomas, a former professor, brings his pedagogical prowess to his extensive research into the marketplace, with a specific focus on the multifamily sector. His work is frequently published in a variety of periodicals, and he spends a vast amount of time presenting his findings to a variety of industry and academic professionals. Prior to joining Moody's Analytics, he served in a consulting role for the firm while teaching classes in foundational economics and urban economics at The College of William & Mary.
Dr. Juan M. Licari is a managing director at Moody's Analytics. Juan and team-members are responsible for the research and analytics that enable our quantitative solutions. The team helps our customers solve complex business problems; adding value through data and analytics.
The analytics team specializes in solutions that help (i) understand, (ii) quantify, (iii) manage, and (iv) integrate risk. When it comes to specific methods to be selected the team has an open-mind approach; leveraging alternative tools ranging from traditional statistics & econometrics to machine learning & AI data-driven algorithms.
The solutions enabled by the team’s analytics are leveraged by our valued customers into core practices such as credit origination & pricing, stress testing & forecasting, optimal investment & portfolio management, ESG risk/opportunity quantification, capital & liquidity adequacy and cash-flow analysis.
A key value added to existing modelling methodologies comes from the explicit connection to the underlying economic cycle. This forward-looking philosophy allows decision-makers to plan for alternative scenarios and anticipate changes in credit and business conditions.
Juan is actively involved in communicating the team’s research and methodologies to the market. He is a public speaker at risk management events and economic conferences worldwide. Dr. Licari is a thought-leader in the risk management industry with frequently cited research publications.
As for his education, Dr. Licari holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and graduated Summa Cum Laude from the National University of Cordoba in Argentina. He is currently enrolled at the Executive MBA from the University of Cambridge, expecting to graduate in 2023. Juan is a proud Latino and ambassador for Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion initiatives.
Doug Simons is a Senior Markets and Policy Fellow in the Markets Office at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. In this capacity he is responsible for advising the Director and his team on a range of issues connected to the banking industry. Key areas of focus include deposit account pricing and developments in the mortgage industry. He also works on topics related to Director Chopra’s role as a member of the Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
Doug entered government service in 2022 following a thirty-year career in investment banking. After beginning his career in the securitization business, he shifted to an advisory role and worked in the Financial Institutions Group at Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, and UBS. His clients included a range of the largest U.S. regional banks and diversified financial institutions. In addition to working on a variety of M&A and capital raising transactions, Doug led these firms’ efforts advising bank clients on regulatory dialogues related to risk management and capital structure.