Sovereign Credit Insights EMEA Edition
November Spotlight: An update on the UK, Jordan and Uganda
- An update on the UK (Aa3 negative) following the Autumn Statement
- Drivers behind the positive outlook assigned to Jordan (B1 positive)
- Uganda’s (B2 negative) rising external vulnerability risks and deteriorating debt affordability
An update on the UK (Aa3 negative) following the Autumn Statement
What is the government’s updated fiscal strategy? What are the risks to delivering on the consolidation?
Drivers behind the positive outlook assigned to Jordan (B1 positive)
To what extent does the government's latest set of economic and administrative reforms have the potential to raise the economy's growth prospects and the resilience of Jordan’s credit profile?
Uganda’s (B2 negative) rising external vulnerability risks and deteriorating debt affordability
What risks are posed by Uganda’s increasing external debt-service payments, a more challenging external environment, and an erosion of the foreign exchange buffer? To what degree is deteriorating debt affordability limiting Uganda’s fiscal space and shock-absorption capacity?
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SpeakersMatt Robinson Associate Managing Director - Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Ratings
Evan Wohlmann Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Hatim Bukhari Associate Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Rafael Leon Associate Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
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Matt Robinson manages the Sovereign Risk Group’s Middle East and Africa team producing ratings and research regarding sovereign and supranational creditworthiness in Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East/North Africa. He is responsible for managing staff located in London, Frankfurt, Dubai and New York.
Matt joined Moody’s in 2007 after a decade of macroeconomic and public policy experience. Prior to managing the Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings team, Matt was the Director of Sovereign Research, responsible for coordinating and contributing to the research produced by Moody’s global team of sovereign risk analysts. Matt previously managed the affairs of the Moody’s Economy.com Sydney office, providing independent economic analysis, data and forecasting and credit risk services to Moody’s Analytics’ worldwide client base. Before joining Moody’s, Matt worked as an economist and policy adviser in a number of public and private sector organisations, including Commonwealth Treasury and the Economic Division of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in Australia.
Matt received his bachelor of economics from the University of Newcastle(Australia) and his graduate degree from the Australian National University.
Evan is responsible for a portfolio of credits in Europe and the CIS that includes the United Kingdom, Russia and Ukraine; he has previously worked on European countries including Portugal, Hungary, Iceland and Israel. Evan joined Moody’s in 2015 after a varied career in the UK public and private sector.
Prior to starting at Moody’s, he spent five and half years working as an economist at the Bank of England, where his last role was an economic adviser in the External Monetary Policy Committee unit. He also worked as a financial economist in the Monetary Analysis division as well as in the bank resolution area working with other UK authorities to monitor and resolve financial institutions as part of the UK’s Resolution Regime. Before joining the Bank of England, he worked in corporate finance at KPMG focusing on debt advisory and mergers and acquisitions.
He holds an MSc in Finance from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Spain as well as an MComm in Economics from the University of Cape Town in South Africa.
Hatim covers a portfolio of credits in Europe and the Middle East that includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Jordan and Romania. Hatim joined Moody’s after four years at the IMF, where he was a research analyst in the Middle East and Central Asia Department covering primarily the economies in the GCC region as well as the oil and gas markets.
Rafael’s coverage portfolio includes credits in Europe and Africa including Spain, Norway, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo among others. He joined Moody’s in 2021 after four years as a country risk analyst covering European markets at Fitch Solutions.
He holds an MSc in Local Economic Development from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Economics from the University of Birmingham.