Colin Ellis Managing Director, Global Credit Strategist Moody's Ratings

Colin Ellis is Moody’s first Global Credit Strategist, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team. 

In his current role, Colin provides thought leadership for the rating agency that deepens the understanding of ratings and debt capital markets through rigorous and quantitative research. He leads Moody’s teams working on default and ratings analytics and on global financial analysis, including bank projections and stress testing. Colin is also a member of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody’s universe of ratings.

Colin joined Moody’s in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. He subsequently worked in the Financial Institutions Group, developing quantitative forward-looking analyses. For 8 years he was the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA, leading analysis and coordination of credit and ratings across all rating franchises in the region. He was also the ‘Head of UK’ for MIS, responsible for the running of Moody’s UK operations, from 2019-2022 including the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Prior to joining Moody’s, Colin held roles at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets, the BVCA and at Birmingham University. He has published papers on a range of topics including corporate investment and pricing, credit risk, private equity, data uncertainty, stress testing, financial contagion and monetary policy. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is a Visiting Professor at Hult International Business School and LSBU, and is also a Fellow of the RSA.

Douglas Dwyer Managing Director - Head of Research, Predictive Analytics Moody's Analytics

Douglas W. Dwyer, Managing Director, leads Corporate Credit Research in Predictive Analytics. This group produces credit risk metrics of small businesses, medium sized enterprises, large corporations, financial institutions, and sovereigns worldwide. The group’s models are used by banks, asset managers, insurance companies, accounting firms and corporations to measure name specific credit risk for a wide variety of purposes. We measure credit risk using information drawn from financial statements, regulatory filings, security prices, derivative contracts, behavioral and payment information. For each asset class, the methodology is developed based on the available information for each obligor.

Current projects include developing a climate adjusted probability of default and incorporating ESG factors into credit analytics.  We also are developing an approach to produces comparable PDs across asset classes that opportunistically uses whatever information is available.

Prior to working at Moody’s Analytics, Dr. Dwyer was a Principal at William M. Mercer, Inc., in their Human Capital Strategy practice. Dr. Dwyer earned a Ph.D. in Economics at Columbia University and a B.A. in Economics from Oberlin College.