From the 2020 summer wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington to the winter storm in Texas this past February, meteorological events are becoming more frequent and extreme across the United States. These disasters not only cause abrupt physical damages but also devaluations in mortgages, bringing unprecedented risks to lenders and increased attention from financial regulatory agencies.  

In this 60-minute webinar, the Moody’s Analytics Consumer Credit team will discuss techniques to analyze natural disaster impacts on probability of default and expected losses for U.S. residential mortgages and HELOCs. Discussion topics will include:

  • Role of natural disasters on mortgage defaults spanning the last twenty years
  • Impacts of climate risk on mortgage portfolios across alternative geographical regions: quantifying changes to tail risk behavior
  • Portfolio management: Quantifying the effects of frequency and severity of natural disasters to your mortgage book through dynamic Monte Carlo simulations

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