A series of events that brings together some of Moody’s top minds to provide an in-depth analysis of key issues and their affect on the credit profiles within eight markets. Gain an understanding around the likely impacts on sovereign credit risks in the wake of the pandemic.
Featuring keynote speaker Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Agenda13:00 - 13:05GMT
Welcome Remarks – State of Nations 202213:05 - 13:15GMT
Moving to the New Normal – Macroeconomic Outlook as the Pandemic Subsides
The global economy is continuing to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but that recovery is patchy and uneven across countries. In this session, we will set out Moody’s expectations for global growth, inflation and policy rates. Prospects will continue to diverge across countries and sectors as economies adjust to the shocks arising from the pandemic, and significant risks remain as those economies try to regain momentum.13:15 - 14:00GMT
Unprecedented policy support has matched the extraordinary nature of the COVID-19 shock, providing an essential buffer to corporates and financial institutions globally. At the same time, sovereigns will continue to bear the brunt of the long-term costs of the pandemic and face the challenge of addressing wide-ranging demands from greater equity to climate change.
14:00 - 14:50GMT
- How do we look back at the COVID-19 policy experiments so far? What policies are likely to prove successful?
- How will governments’ role evolve in a post COVID-19 world?
- What governments are best/worst place to face such wide-ranging demands?
Trends & Risks Shaping Sovereigns in 2022
The variations of the Covid-19 virus will keep the world on its toes through 2022. Despite robust growth in 2021, a full normalization of economic activity will remain elusive as vaccination progress differs sharply across advanced, emerging and frontier economies.
Two years into the pandemic, governments will seek to unwind their fiscal stance and withdraw support measures deployed. Debt affordability conditions will sharply contrast across regions with materially higher debt burdens exposing debt sustainability concerns for some countries in the context of tightening financial conditions. Economic distortions and intensifying social disparities will also have a profound and lasting effect on policy implementation. The political landscape will be exposed to various risks of abrupt changes on the back of a loaded global electoral cycle in 2022.
The panel will convene a group of Moody´s sovereign experts in Europe, the Americas and Africa as they canvass these regions comparing trends and contrast the salient credit strengths and vulnerabilities.14:50 - 14:55GMT
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