State of Nations | Americas & EMEA
Policy books in the making? The Changing Role of Governments in the Post-COVID World
A series of events that brings together some of Moody’s top minds to provide an in-depth analysis of key issues and their affect on the credit profiles within eight markets. Gain an understanding around the likely impacts on sovereign credit risks in the wake of the pandemic.
Featuring keynote speaker Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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Agenda13:05 - 13:15GMT
Moving to the New Normal – Macroeconomic Outlook as the Pandemic Subsides
The global economy is continuing to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but that recovery is patchy and uneven across countries. In this session, we will set out Moody’s expectations for global growth, inflation and policy rates. Prospects will continue to diverge across countries and sectors as economies adjust to the shocks arising from the pandemic, and significant risks remain as those economies try to regain momentum.
13:15 - 14:00GMTKeynote Interview
Unprecedented policy support has matched the extraordinary nature of the COVID-19 shock, providing an essential buffer to corporates and financial institutions globally. At the same time, sovereigns will continue to bear the brunt of the long-term costs of the pandemic and face the challenge of addressing wide-ranging demands from greater equity to climate change.
- How do we look back at the COVID-19 policy experiments so far? What policies are likely to prove successful?
- How will governments’ role evolve in a post COVID-19 world?
- What governments are best/worst place to face such wide-ranging demands?
14:00 - 14:50GMTTrends & Risks Shaping Sovereigns in 2022
The variations of the Covid-19 virus will keep the world on its toes through 2022. Despite robust growth in 2021, a full normalization of economic activity will remain elusive as vaccination progress differs sharply across advanced, emerging and frontier economies.
Two years into the pandemic, governments will seek to unwind their fiscal stance and withdraw support measures deployed. Debt affordability conditions will sharply contrast across regions with materially higher debt burdens exposing debt sustainability concerns for some countries in the context of tightening financial conditions. Economic distortions and intensifying social disparities will also have a profound and lasting effect on policy implementation. The political landscape will be exposed to various risks of abrupt changes on the back of a loaded global electoral cycle in 2022.
The panel will convene a group of Moody´s sovereign experts in Europe, the Americas and Africa as they canvass these regions comparing trends and contrast the salient credit strengths and vulnerabilities.
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SpeakersAdam Posen President Peterson Institute for International Economics
Sarah Carlson Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Mauro Leos Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Anne Van Praagh Managing Director – Global Head of Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Moody’s Investors Service
Colin Ellis Managing Director, Global Credit Strategist Moody's Ratings
David Rogovic Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
10
Nov
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Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Colin Ellis is Moody’s first Global Credit Strategist, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team.
In his current role, Colin provides thought leadership for the rating agency that deepens the understanding of ratings and debt capital markets through rigorous and quantitative research. He leads Moody’s teams working on default and ratings analytics and on global financial analysis, including bank projections and stress testing. Colin is also a member of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody’s universe of ratings.
Colin joined Moody’s in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. He subsequently worked in the Financial Institutions Group, developing quantitative forward-looking analyses. For 8 years he was the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA, leading analysis and coordination of credit and ratings across all rating franchises in the region. He was also the ‘Head of UK’ for MIS, responsible for the running of Moody’s UK operations, from 2019-2022 including the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Colin held roles at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets, the BVCA and at Birmingham University. He has published papers on a range of topics including corporate investment and pricing, credit risk, private equity, data uncertainty, stress testing, financial contagion and monetary policy. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is a Visiting Professor at Hult International Business School and LSBU, and is also a Fellow of the RSA.
Adam S. Posen is president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Under his leadership, since January 2013, the Institute has grown to 42 world-renowned fellows and won global recognition –including being named North American Economics Think Tank of the Year by Prospect five years in a row (2016 thru 2020). From 2009 to 2012, Posen served as an external voting member of the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Posen served seven terms on the Panel of Economic Advisers to the US Congressional Budget Office (2005-19), and co-authored Inflation Targeting with Bernanke, Laubach, and Mishkin while at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1994-97). In April 2021, Foreign Affairs published his article, “The Price of Nostalgia: America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat,” where he provides an analysis of US retreat from globalization.
Adam’s recent writings and speeches can be accessed at: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/adam-s-posen
Marie Diron heads the Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, and Sub-Sovereign Risk Group for Asia Pacific and EMEA. She is responsible for analytical teams covering more than 70 sovereign ratings, 15 Multilateral Development Banks and around 400 sub-sovereign ratings in about 30 countries. Marie is also a project owner of Moody’s Investors Service’s ESG scores, which were launched in early 2021.
Marie has worked as Moody’s lead sovereign analyst for a number of Asia Pacific credits, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Sri Lanka and Australia. Marie has also worked in Moody’s Credit Policy, leading a number of macroeconomic analyses, including our regular Global Macro Outlook and other credit research work. Marie was previously Director at Oxford Economics, leading the company’s forecasting and scenario analysis service to financial sector and corporate clients, after a number of years at the European Central Bank and Brevan Howard LLP. Marie received a MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge and graduated from the Ecole Centrale Paris.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Mauro has been with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group since 1996. He is currentlyAssociate Managing Director for the Americas responsible for sovereign ratings inLatin America, the Caribbean, US and Canada. Mauro is also responsible for ratings of multilateral banks in the region.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he was Managing Director for Latin America at WhartonEconometrics (WEFA) in Philadelphia. Mauro completed graduate studies at theUniversity of Wisconsin in the areas of International Finance and Econometrics.
He did his undergraduate studies -- major in Economics -- at the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (I.T.E.S.M.) in Mexico.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Adam S. Posen is president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Under his leadership, since January 2013, the Institute has grown to 42 world-renowned fellows and won global recognition –including being named North American Economics Think Tank of the Year by Prospect five years in a row (2016 thru 2020). From 2009 to 2012, Posen served as an external voting member of the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Posen served seven terms on the Panel of Economic Advisers to the US Congressional Budget Office (2005-19), and co-authored Inflation Targeting with Bernanke, Laubach, and Mishkin while at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1994-97). In April 2021, Foreign Affairs published his article, “The Price of Nostalgia: America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat,” where he provides an analysis of US retreat from globalization.
Adam’s recent writings and speeches can be accessed at: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/adam-s-posen
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Mauro has been with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group since 1996. He is currentlyAssociate Managing Director for the Americas responsible for sovereign ratings inLatin America, the Caribbean, US and Canada. Mauro is also responsible for ratings of multilateral banks in the region.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he was Managing Director for Latin America at WhartonEconometrics (WEFA) in Philadelphia. Mauro completed graduate studies at theUniversity of Wisconsin in the areas of International Finance and Econometrics.
He did his undergraduate studies -- major in Economics -- at the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (I.T.E.S.M.) in Mexico.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Colin Ellis is Moody’s first Global Credit Strategist, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team.
In his current role, Colin provides thought leadership for the rating agency that deepens the understanding of ratings and debt capital markets through rigorous and quantitative research. He leads Moody’s teams working on default and ratings analytics and on global financial analysis, including bank projections and stress testing. Colin is also a member of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody’s universe of ratings.
Colin joined Moody’s in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. He subsequently worked in the Financial Institutions Group, developing quantitative forward-looking analyses. For 8 years he was the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA, leading analysis and coordination of credit and ratings across all rating franchises in the region. He was also the ‘Head of UK’ for MIS, responsible for the running of Moody’s UK operations, from 2019-2022 including the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Colin held roles at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets, the BVCA and at Birmingham University. He has published papers on a range of topics including corporate investment and pricing, credit risk, private equity, data uncertainty, stress testing, financial contagion and monetary policy. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is a Visiting Professor at Hult International Business School and LSBU, and is also a Fellow of the RSA.
David Rogovic is an Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group based in New York. David has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereign and supranational credits in Africa as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. David’s prior experience includes the best part of a decade analyzing sovereign credit risk in Western and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey and Asia with J.P. Morgan, Nomura Asset Management and Roubini Global Economics, as well as an earlier stint with S&P’s financial institutions division. David is a Fulbright scholar (Economics Institute, Zagreb) and was awarded a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from Pace University.