Sovereign Credit Insights LatAm Edition
May Spotlight: Update on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Costa Rica and USA
- How is inflation expected to be affected as Brazil´s Central Bank is reaching the end of their tightening cycle.
- Policy changes expected as an outcome of the Colombia elections.
- What are Mexico´s economic growth expectations.
- How the recent cyber attack on Costa Rica’s government crippled key digital services such as tax collection.
- How is the FED managing inflationary challenges in USA while preventing a hard landing.
This month´s sovereign highlights include:
- Brazil: The Central Bank is close to reaching the end of their tightening cycle, with inflation expected to peak in the coming months. It began tightening earlier than peers in the region.
- Colombia: Regardless of the outcome of the elections, we expect the country's political and economic institutions will provide a strong counter weight to radical policy changes. However, if new policies lead to a negative investment shock, then both growth and the fiscal profile will deteriorate.
- Mexico: Strong first quarter raises our expectations for full year growth to 1.8% , as exports to US increase. However, inflationary pressures will remain a key headwind to stronger economic growth.
- Costa Rica: The recent cyber attack on Costa Rica’s government crippled key digital services such as tax collection, and highlights the increasing risks and impacts of cyber attacks that governments now face.
- USA: The FED will have difficulty managing inflationary challenges while preventing a hard landing, however we expect lower growth rather than a recession this year. A combination of headwinds have caused us to lower growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2022, from 3.7% previously.
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SpeakersSamar Maziad Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Gabriel Torres Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors Service
Jaime Reusche Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Investors Service
William Foster Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Renzo Merino Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody’s Investors Service
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Dr. Samar Maziad is a Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign RiskGroup in New York. She is a lead credit risk analyst for a portfolio of Latin American sovereigns and multilateral development banks, including Brazil and others. Prior tojoining Moody’s, Dr. Maziad was a Senior Economist at the International MonetaryFund, where she covered a wide range of macroeconomic and financial stability issues in emerging markets including China and Latin America.
Dr. Maziad is a regular participant at high-profile market briefings, external conferences and media engagements related to Latin America and emerging markets. Ms. Maziad holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of St. Andrews in the UK.
Gabriel joined Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in 2007. Prior to joining Moody’s he worked as a sovereign and banking credit analyst at ABN Amro. He also has experience rating and structuring international securitizations. His current portfolio is composed of credits in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina and Venezuela.He holds a Master’s Degree in Economic Policy from Columbia University, and previously he earned a B.A. in Political Science from the Catholic University of Argentina.
Jaime Reusche is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s sovereign risk group. He has 11 years of industry experience. Mr. Reusche is responsible for analysis and ratings of Latin American sovereigns. He authors research on developments impacting sovereign credit quality, participates in sovereign rating committees, and is responsible for communicating sovereign risk group views in investor briefings and discussions with policymakers. Previously, he was lead analyst for a portfolio of Central and Eastern European sovereigns in the same group, before refocusing on Latin America.
He had worked as a Director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group covering Latin American credits including Argentina, Chile and Central American countries until 2011. Prior to this, Mr. Reusche held the positions of analyst, associate analyst and senior associate throughout his nearly seven years at the sovereigns group in Moody’s, where he covered Latin American and Eastern European sovereigns, and oversaw data collection for Moody’s semi-annual Country Statistical Handbook.
| William (Bill) Foster is a Vice President-Senior Credit Officer in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he serves as lead analyst on the United States, Canada, India, and World Bank Group credits. Bill joined Moody’s in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs’ first dedicated liaison to New York’s international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as the U.S. Financial Attaché to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi, where he represented the U.S. Government as its primary economic expert and financial diplomat in India. Bill joined Treasury’s Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006, and covered a wide range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture. Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University. He is a member of The Economic Club of New York and an Industry Advisory Board Member for Columbia Business School’s India Business Initiative. |
Renzo Merino es vicepresidente y analista sénior del grupo de riesgo soberano de Moody's Investors Service. Se incorporó a Moody's en 2011 y ha sido analista líder de calificaciones soberanas y supranacionales en América Latina desde 2014. Su cartera incluye México, Colombia, Panamá y Uruguay. También es el analista principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Renzo ha publicado investigaciones sobre temas relevantes para el crédito soberano que afectan a la región de América Latina. Se graduó de la Universidad de Nueva York con una Maestría en Economía y también tiene un BA en Economía de la Universidad de Pennsylvania.