Sovereign Credit Insights EMEA Edition
June Spotlight: An update on Croatia, Israel and Bulgaria
- How the crystallisation of tail risks drives large shifts in credit conditions
- Update on Croatia following the recent placement of the country’s Ba1 ratings on review for upgrade
- Update on Israel’s (A1 positive) political environment, with new elections likely to take place in Q4 2022
- Update on the collapse of the Bulgarian (Baa1 stable) government after the opposition won a no-confidence vote
How the crystallisation of tail risks drives large shifts in credit conditions
Are tail risks reflected in Moody’s ratings? What if they crystallize? What are recent examples of such tail risks?
Update on Croatia following the recent placement of the country’s Ba1 ratings on review for upgrade
What were the key drivers for rating action? How long will be the review period and how sizeable could be the rating upgrade?
Update on Israel’s (A1 positive) political environment, with new elections likely to take place in Q4 2022
What are the implications for Israel's economic and fiscal policy? What are Moody’s expectations with respect to the new government’s fiscal consolidation plans?
Update on the collapse of the Bulgarian (Baa1 stable) government after the opposition won a no-confidence vote
What are the likely outcomes of the current political crisis? What are Moody’s views on the potential policy implications?
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SpeakersDietmar Hornung Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Heiko Peters Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Colin Ellis Managing Director, Global Credit Strategist Moody's Ratings
Nikola Apostolov Associate Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Investors ServiceNA
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Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.
Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Dietmar was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.
Dietmar holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a Masters degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen.
Dietmar is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).
| Heiko Peters is a Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group, and is based in the Frankfurt office. He has Lead Analyst responsibilities for a number of European sovereigns and supra-nationals, producing ratings and research related to their creditworthiness. Heiko joined Moody’s from Deutsche Bank AG, where he was Senior Economist - Vice President in the European Economics Team of Deutsche Bank Research for more than five years. He published research on economic and political topics, including global trade, labour markets, demographics and migration, and covered in particular the economies of Germany and Austria. Prior to that he had worked from 2009 to 2011 as an Economist for the German Council of Economic Experts in Wiesbaden, reporting to the Chair of the Council. Moreover, his professional background includes stints at the Deutsche Bundesbank (Visiting Researcher), Germany’s Monopolies Commission and the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), both as a Visiting Fellow. He holds a PhD, a Master’s level diploma and a BSc in Economics from the University of Muenster. |
Colin Ellis is Moody’s first Global Credit Strategist, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team.
In his current role, Colin provides thought leadership for the rating agency that deepens the understanding of ratings and debt capital markets through rigorous and quantitative research. He leads Moody’s teams working on default and ratings analytics and on global financial analysis, including bank projections and stress testing. Colin is also a member of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody’s universe of ratings.
Colin joined Moody’s in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. He subsequently worked in the Financial Institutions Group, developing quantitative forward-looking analyses. For 8 years he was the Chief Credit Officer for EMEA, leading analysis and coordination of credit and ratings across all rating franchises in the region. He was also the ‘Head of UK’ for MIS, responsible for the running of Moody’s UK operations, from 2019-2022 including the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Colin held roles at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets, the BVCA and at Birmingham University. He has published papers on a range of topics including corporate investment and pricing, credit risk, private equity, data uncertainty, stress testing, financial contagion and monetary policy. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is a Visiting Professor at Hult International Business School and LSBU, and is also a Fellow of the RSA.