Outlooks 2022



Sovereigns – Global

The global economic rebound will continue into 2022, easing immediate credit pressures for governments in most regions and enabling a slow unwinding of support measures. Read the analysis to understand the ramifications of the unprecedented levels of government debt, the social and institutional costs of the pandemic, and the differing impacts on advanced and emerging economies.

Moody’s outlook for sovereign creditworthiness for the next 12-18 months has changed to stable from negative as the continuing economic recovery will improve revenues and allow governments to start unwinding some of the extraordinary stimulus they provided in response to the pandemic. However, the far-reaching economic support provided to households and many sectors during the pandemic has left sovereigns with weaker balance sheets. Once growth rates return to the pre-pandemic trend, most sovereigns will struggle to maintain sufficiently large primary fiscal surpluses to recover lost fiscal space before the next major shock.
Alexander Perjessy
Vice President, Senior Analyst
Moody's Investors Service


Sovereigns – Global

Moody’s sovereign credit outlook for 2022 is stable amid the continuing economic recovery. However, governments will bear the brunt of the longer-term costs of the pandemic and will be tested by challenges such as climate change.

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