Weak growth and social pressures will further weaken public-sector finances. Together with challenging funding conditions and high levels of interconnectedness, liquidity risks are elevated.

Even as Argentina's economy recovers some ground in2022, macroeconomic imbalances and high inflation still pose substantial risk for companies, utilities and regional and local governments.

Decelerating GDP growth, higher interest rates and inflation will slow the positive momentum for Brazilian companies in 2022,but stronger balance sheets will support overall credit quality.

Chinese authorities will seek to avoid instability from Evergrande’s resolution to avoid widespread negative repercussions across the economy. However, some costs will likely be borne by the central and regional governments, some financial institutions and other property developers

Prolonged political instability in Afghanistan would result in a large numbers of refugees and potentially increase terrorist activity, raising geopolitical risks in neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This may weaken economic sentiment in those countries and weigh on foreign investment, with long-term implications for economic growth.

Water scarcity will limit hydroelectric power generation capacity, complicating efforts to achieve clean energy targets. Meanwhile, regional and local governments and water-intensive companies, including mining and beverage companies, will face higher capital spending costs as water stress increases over time.

Economic scarring from the coronavirus pandemic will have the most negative credit effects on sovereigns with narrowly focused economies and with limited ability to adapt.

Nigeria, Turkey and Colombia will be hit hardest; China, India and Chile will be most resilient

Provinces with large legacy carbon-emitting industries or exposure to coal mining and weaker fiscal and state-owned enterprise profiles will have most difficulty bearing cost of transition.

Well-targeted safety nets mitigate the severity of economic disruption and reduces social risks, but the availability and quality of these programs vary widely.

The combined EBITDA of the four Russian oil majors we rate will grow by more than 25% in 2021 from a low base in 2020. This will bring leverage closer to pre-pandemic levels by year-end.

Fragmented markets, large populations of unbanked citizens and low e-commerce penetration rates give retailers significant opportunities in Latin America coming years.

Our outlook for the Indian banking system is negative. This outlook expresses our expectation of how bank creditworthiness will evolve in the system over the next 12-18 months.

Our outlook for the Egyptian banking system is stable. The outlook expresses our expectation of how bank creditworthiness will evolve in this system over the next 12 to 18 months.