Deep Dive: Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa sovereigns will continue to face significant negative credit pressure in 2022
The ongoing economic recovery in SSA will remain fragile as the effects of the pandemic linger. As currently the least vaccinated region globally, SSA remains exposed to new waves of the pandemic that could prompt a tightening of restrictions. Apart from oil exporters, public finances will generally continue to deteriorate due to persisting large fiscal deficits, which will continue to constrain fiscal space and amplify affordability challenges.
Fiscal positions will also remain pressured by increased social demands in the years to come as preexisting social pressure related inequality and poverty were amplified by the pandemic. Underlying debt sustainability challenges remain broadly unchanged in 2022 and in particular the need to secure new external funding.
The international community external financial support, through various initiatives, has been essential for many SSA countries. Participation to the Common Framework will potentially increase without another form of direct support which would have negative rating implications if it involves losses on private creditors.
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SpeakersLucie Villa Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group Moody's Ratings
Elisa Parisi-Capone Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Aurelien Mali Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
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Lucie is the lead analyst for several Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranational issuers and is a senior member of Moody’s Africa Sovereign Ratings team. Prior to January 2015, she covered a variety of advanced and emerging market European sovereign credits, having joined the Sovereign Risk Group in early 2011 from Moody’s Sub-Sovereign Group.
Prior to joining Moody’s in 2007, Lucie spent two years at the French Ministry of Finance in the Forecast division, responsible for projections and analyses of France’s government finances.
Lucie holds a postgraduate degree in Probability and Statistics from a French Engineering School (ENSAI) and a Master’s degree in Economics from the Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.
Elisa is Vice President – Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York. She has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of North- and Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranationals. Her previous regional coverage also included sovereigns in Southeast Europe and in the CIS. Prior to joining Moody’s, Elisa spent two years at the Swiss Ministry of Finance in Berne, Switzerland, and seven years as Senior Analyst at Roubini Global Economic in New York covering the Euro area and Finance and Banking issues. Elisa holds an MA in Economics from New York University (NYU) and completed her undergraduate studies with a Lizentiat in Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Elisa speaks fluent German and Italian and proficient French
Aurélien Mali is currently Vice President Senior Credit Officer. He acts as the firm’s expert in Africa. His position is a combined lead analyst and analytical outreach/credit ambassador role. As a member of the Sovereign Risk Group since August 2002, he was involved in Moody’s sovereign ratings in Europe and the Middle East at the beginning of his career. Over the last 8 years, he has been at the forefront of Moody’s growing footprint in Africa. He has been sovereign lead or backup analyst for almost all sovereign issuers and multilateral development banks we rate in Africa. Aurelien was relocated to our Dubai office early 2013 from our London office. Aurelien manages a research programme that supports the development of Moody’s reputation for analytical insight and excellence. He also assumes a greater role in participating in regular Moody’s and third-party conferences on the continent, Africa-related investor briefings, and undertaking analytical outreach to inform and explain Moody’s credit judgments. Aurelien also supports other Moody’s franchises using his unique experience and visibility across multiple sectors and asset classes in the region. Finally, he remains the lead/backup sovereign analyst for few countries including Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola and South Africa. Aurélien holds a BSc in Economics and a postgraduate degree (DEA) in Money, Finance and Banking from the Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.