Changing State of the US Consumer
From inflation to shortages: New concerns for consumers
As the reopening of the US economy progresses, join us on July 13 as we check in on the outlook for employment, consumer spending, inflation and the US fiscal position in the aftermath of the government’s response to COVID-19.
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Agenda
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01:00
The Evolving Consumer Economy and US Fiscal Position
Employment, consumer spending and inflation are all rising: We expect strong economic growth to continue, with some variation across industries and regions, but for some developments, such as faster gains in prices, to be likely transitory.
- What are the implications of rising prices for consumer spending?
- Where will job market frictions persist, and are areas of labor tightness constraining growth?
- How much will higher federal debt matter?
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01:35
Credit Implications of Rising Consumer Demand: From Healthcare to Housing
Along with the credit positive impacts on consumer demand from the economy reviving up, issuers will need to navigate the unusual operating environment created by pandemic fallout and other factors.
- What challenges will be faced and opportunities unlocked across the consumer landscape -- from hospitals and housing to auto dealers and retailers – as demand recovers?
- What pent-up spending desires and consumer finance changes will end up being the most important for the rest of this year and beyond?
- What goods, like RV and boat sales, are in particularly high demand as consumer interests evolve? Will the surge in housing prices, and therefore home equity, spur meaningful equity extraction?
- Where will labor shortages persist as pandemic-era disruptions confront longer-lasting issues?
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SpeakersRobard Williams Senior Vice President/CSR, Credit Strategy & Standards Moody's Investors Service
Marisa DiNatale Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's
Cris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist Moody's
William Black Managing Director - Consumer Structured Finance Ameircas Moody's Investors Service
Lisa Goldstein Associate Managing Director, Public Finance - Healthcare Moody's Investors Service
Kruti Muni Managing Director - US Consumer ABS Moody's Investors Service
Charles O'Shea Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Moody's Investors Service
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| Robard Williams is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Credit Strategy and Standards Group, where he conducts research on a variety of areas – ranging from technology &innovation to demographics & financial services – that have the potential to influence creditworthiness across sectors and geographies. Robard joined Moody’s in 2012 as a Vice President in the Global Financial Institutions Group Research Team, with responsibility for monitoring and analyzing financial market developments that impact the creditworthiness of Moody’s-rated banks and securities firms. Prior to joining Moody’s, Robard spent 12 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he worked in the Bank Supervision Group, managing a team with responsibility for identifying emergent risks to financial system stability. Robard holds a Master’s Degree in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and bachelor’s degree from Haverford College, Pennsylvania. |
William (Bill) Foster is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York, where he currently serves as lead analyst on a portfolio of sovereign and supranational credits that include: the United States, Canada, Chile, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Honduras and the World Bank (IBRD and IDA). He previously served as lead analyst for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Kazakhstan. Bill is global head of Moody’s Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Cyber Risk Working Group and lead sovereign representative to Moody’s Global Cyber Risk Working Group. He also serves as co-host of Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture podcast series.
Bill joined Moody’s in August 2016, following 10 years at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He most recently served as Senior Advisor for International Financial Markets based in New York, where he was the Office of International Affairs’ first dedicated liaison to New York’s international financial community. From August 2012 to March 2015, he served as U.S. Financial Attaché to India at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. Bill joined Treasury’s Office of International Affairs as an international economist in 2006 and covered a wide range of geographies during his tenure, including Latin America, South and East Asia. Prior to joining Treasury, he worked as a management consultant at Accenture.
Bill holds a Master of International Affairs degree in International Financial and Economic Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) and a BA from Wesleyan University. He is a member of The Economic Club of New York, and has served as an Industry Advisory Board Member of Columbia Business School’s India Business Initiative and a member of SIPA’s Alumni Careers Advisory Committee.
Marisa DiNatale is a Senior Director and Head of Global Forecasting at Moody’s. Marisa oversees all forecasting and publication operations in the Economics group within Predictive Analytics at Moody’s. Her areas of specialization and research are U.S. labor markets, household balance sheets and credit, and international economics. She is a cohost of the Moody’s weekly podcast “Inside Economics”. Marisa started her career as a labor economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. She holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Boston University.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
William Black, Managing Director – Structured Finance Group – is responsible for Moody’s securitization and covered bond ratings businesses in the Americas.
William currently heads four teams of credit professionals located in the US, Canada and Latin America, and is responsible for the ratings and surveillance of a variety of consumer-focused ABS and RMBS asset classes. Prior to this role, he headed the US ABS primary ratings team. William has published and spoken extensively on Moody’s behalf and serves as an editorial board member for two related monthly newsletters, ABS Spotlight and ResiLandscape. William earned a BA in Economics from Vanderbilt University and an MBA at Fordham's Graduate Business School.
Lisa manages the US not-for-profit healthcare ratings team. As team leader, she leads a group of 11 analysts responsible for credit analysis and ratings of over 400 healthcare organizations. Lisa is a member of rating committee for the healthcare rating team as well as several other sectors within Moody’s Public Finance Group. Lisa has worked with numerous not-for-profit healthcare systems and hospitals across the country. Lisa has authored several Moody’s “Special Comments” on timely matters relating to the healthcare industry and the impact on bond ratings and is a nationally recognized speaker. Her research is frequently quoted in national trade publications and media outlets. Lisa served on the national board of directors of the Healthcare Financial Management Association (HFMA) from 2006-2009 and is a faculty member of The Governance Institute. Lisa has annually been named by “Smith’s Research and Rating Review” to the All-Star Fixed Income Research teams.
Lisa is a member of Healthcare Financial Management Association and Municipal Analysts Group in New York. Lisa received her B.A. in American Studies from Brandeis University and her M.P.A in Public Administration from New York University.
Kruti Muni heads the U.S. Consumer Assets Securitization surveillance team at Moody’s. This team is responsible for surveillance of all consumer-focused asset classes in the U.S including consumer ABS and RMBS.Prior to her current role, Kruti had managed multiple credit ratings teams at Moody’s including those responsible for analyzing securitizations backed by the U.S. credit cards, consumer loans, student loans, auto loans & leases, RMBS, covered bonds,Single Family Rentals, among others. She also led the U.S., Originator Assessments and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) RMBS teams.Kruti has published and spoken extensively on Moody’s behalf and serves as an editorial board member for two related monthly newsletters, ABS Spotlight and ResiLandscape. She has also been actively involved in developing and updating Moody’s structured finance methodologies in various sectors and jurisdictions.Kruti holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Rochester (William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration) in theU.S.A.
Charlie O’Shea is lead analyst for Moody’s Investors Service US Retail Team within the US Corporate Finance group, where he oversees coverage of 26 companies including Walmart, Target, Sysco, Costco, Amazon, Best Buy, Staples, Office Depot, AutoZone, AutoNation, and Toys R Us. In addition, he works closely with the Latin American team on a number of issuers in that region. Charlie has been with the retail team since joining Moody’s in December 2002. As lead analyst, he has had responsibility for more than 90 issuers across the retail, apparel, consumer products and consumer durables sectors. Charlie is frequently quoted in national publications including The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Reuters, The New York Times, CNBC.com, USA Today, National Post, Bloomberg, and Fortune. He has also appeared on Squawk Box, Squawk on the Street, Squawk Alley, Power Lunch, CNBC Asia, TheStreet.com, Nightly Business Report, Reuters, Business News Network, Bloomberg TV, CBS Radio, and National Public Radio.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Charlie spent five years at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein where among other positions he served as Deputy Chief Credit Officer/Americas and participated on the Global Credit Committee. He was active in secondary debt trading, workout, derivatives, and restructurings across a range of sectors, including leveraged finance, automotive, health care, general corporate, Latin and South American corporate, asset-backed finance, and the paper and packaging industry. He also led the firm’s Health Care Finance Group. Prior to DrKW, Charlie spent more than nine years with M&T Bank in Buffalo and Rochester, New York in various commercial lending functions. He received a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from The University of Rochester.
| Robard Williams is a Senior Vice President in Moody’s Credit Strategy and Standards Group, where he conducts research on a variety of areas – ranging from technology &innovation to demographics & financial services – that have the potential to influence creditworthiness across sectors and geographies. Robard joined Moody’s in 2012 as a Vice President in the Global Financial Institutions Group Research Team, with responsibility for monitoring and analyzing financial market developments that impact the creditworthiness of Moody’s-rated banks and securities firms. Prior to joining Moody’s, Robard spent 12 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he worked in the Bank Supervision Group, managing a team with responsibility for identifying emergent risks to financial system stability. Robard holds a Master’s Degree in Law and Diplomacy from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and bachelor’s degree from Haverford College, Pennsylvania. |
Marisa DiNatale is a Senior Director and Head of Global Forecasting at Moody’s. Marisa oversees all forecasting and publication operations in the Economics group within Predictive Analytics at Moody’s. Her areas of specialization and research are U.S. labor markets, household balance sheets and credit, and international economics. She is a cohost of the Moody’s weekly podcast “Inside Economics”. Marisa started her career as a labor economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. She holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Boston University.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, specializes in assessing the economy’s impact on household finance, housing, credit markets and public policy. Named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling, he created loss forecasting and stress testing systems for financial institutions. He joined Moody’s in 2008, after serving as a director with Fannie Mae. He also was an adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
William Black, Managing Director – Structured Finance Group – is responsible for Moody’s securitization and covered bond ratings businesses in the Americas.
William currently heads four teams of credit professionals located in the US, Canada and Latin America, and is responsible for the ratings and surveillance of a variety of consumer-focused ABS and RMBS asset classes. Prior to this role, he headed the US ABS primary ratings team. William has published and spoken extensively on Moody’s behalf and serves as an editorial board member for two related monthly newsletters, ABS Spotlight and ResiLandscape. William earned a BA in Economics from Vanderbilt University and an MBA at Fordham's Graduate Business School.
Lisa manages the US not-for-profit healthcare ratings team. As team leader, she leads a group of 11 analysts responsible for credit analysis and ratings of over 400 healthcare organizations. Lisa is a member of rating committee for the healthcare rating team as well as several other sectors within Moody’s Public Finance Group. Lisa has worked with numerous not-for-profit healthcare systems and hospitals across the country. Lisa has authored several Moody’s “Special Comments” on timely matters relating to the healthcare industry and the impact on bond ratings and is a nationally recognized speaker. Her research is frequently quoted in national trade publications and media outlets. Lisa served on the national board of directors of the Healthcare Financial Management Association (HFMA) from 2006-2009 and is a faculty member of The Governance Institute. Lisa has annually been named by “Smith’s Research and Rating Review” to the All-Star Fixed Income Research teams.
Lisa is a member of Healthcare Financial Management Association and Municipal Analysts Group in New York. Lisa received her B.A. in American Studies from Brandeis University and her M.P.A in Public Administration from New York University.
Kruti Muni heads the U.S. Consumer Assets Securitization surveillance team at Moody’s. This team is responsible for surveillance of all consumer-focused asset classes in the U.S including consumer ABS and RMBS.Prior to her current role, Kruti had managed multiple credit ratings teams at Moody’s including those responsible for analyzing securitizations backed by the U.S. credit cards, consumer loans, student loans, auto loans & leases, RMBS, covered bonds,Single Family Rentals, among others. She also led the U.S., Originator Assessments and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) RMBS teams.Kruti has published and spoken extensively on Moody’s behalf and serves as an editorial board member for two related monthly newsletters, ABS Spotlight and ResiLandscape. She has also been actively involved in developing and updating Moody’s structured finance methodologies in various sectors and jurisdictions.Kruti holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Rochester (William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration) in theU.S.A.
Charlie O’Shea is lead analyst for Moody’s Investors Service US Retail Team within the US Corporate Finance group, where he oversees coverage of 26 companies including Walmart, Target, Sysco, Costco, Amazon, Best Buy, Staples, Office Depot, AutoZone, AutoNation, and Toys R Us. In addition, he works closely with the Latin American team on a number of issuers in that region. Charlie has been with the retail team since joining Moody’s in December 2002. As lead analyst, he has had responsibility for more than 90 issuers across the retail, apparel, consumer products and consumer durables sectors. Charlie is frequently quoted in national publications including The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Reuters, The New York Times, CNBC.com, USA Today, National Post, Bloomberg, and Fortune. He has also appeared on Squawk Box, Squawk on the Street, Squawk Alley, Power Lunch, CNBC Asia, TheStreet.com, Nightly Business Report, Reuters, Business News Network, Bloomberg TV, CBS Radio, and National Public Radio.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Charlie spent five years at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein where among other positions he served as Deputy Chief Credit Officer/Americas and participated on the Global Credit Committee. He was active in secondary debt trading, workout, derivatives, and restructurings across a range of sectors, including leveraged finance, automotive, health care, general corporate, Latin and South American corporate, asset-backed finance, and the paper and packaging industry. He also led the firm’s Health Care Finance Group. Prior to DrKW, Charlie spent more than nine years with M&T Bank in Buffalo and Rochester, New York in various commercial lending functions. He received a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from The University of Rochester.