2023 North American banking system outlooks
Stable in a turbulent world
Moody’s North American banking team discussed the outlooks for Canadian and U.S. banks in light of central banks’ tightening of financial conditions. The team shared what key areas of North American bank credit Moody’s is watching closely as the impacts of central bank policy tightening transmit more fully to the economy and financial institutions in 2023.
- Current macro outlooks for Canada and the U.S. and what these outlooks imply for these banking systems;
- An overview of the three pillars of North American banks’ loss absorbency – profitability, allowances for credit losses, and capital; and
- A summary of banks’ evolving funding and liquidity trends in light of tighter central bank policies
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SpeakersJill Cetina Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service
Robert Colangelo Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Canadian Banks Moody's Investors Service
Rita Sahu Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, North America Banks Moody's Investors Service
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Jill Cetina is an Associate Managing Director for U.S. banks and government sponsored enterprises in North American FIG. Prior to joining Moody’s in 2022, Jill held a senior position at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and has previously worked U.S Treasury, Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Financial Research.
Jill earned a BA from Grinnell College and a Master of Public Affairs from Princeton University. She is a CFA charterholder and has published journal articles on a range of banking topics, including stress testing, liquidity management, capital standards, and repo markets.
Robert Colangelo is Vice President for the North America Financial Institutions Group. Based in Toronto, he is a lead credit analyst for the largest Canadian banks and insurance companies and publishes related research on these institutions as well as the banking and insurance sectors.
Rob joined Moody’s in June 2021. Before joining Moody’s, Rob worked at another credit rating agency based in Toronto where he was a lead analyst on the large Canadian banks and various credit unions and other financial institutions in Canada. Rob also held a wide range of senior level positions in Finance at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), including roles in External Reporting, Investor Relations and performance management reporting and forecasting. Rob holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Toronto and is a Chartered Professional Accountant (CA).
Rita Sahu is a Vice President - Senior Credit Officer in the Financial Institutions Group of Moody’s Investors Service, covering a portfolio of US banks. She joined Moody’s in 2003 as an Associate Analyst and has had lead analytical responsibilities since 2005.
Before joining Moody’s, Rita held positions with J.P. Morgan, primarily in counter party credit risk management, where she was responsible for monitoring and reporting on the firm’s global trading activities. Prior to J.P. Morgan, she was a compliance officer at Republic National Bank of New York. Rita began her career as a bank examiner for large regional and community banks with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Rita holds a BS in accounting from Rutgers University and an MBA in finance from Columbia Business School.