Canadian Provinces - 2023 Outlook
As 2023 arrives, the economic forecast and global environment for Canadian provinces is very much different from 2022. Numerous headwinds including slowing global economic growth, geopolitical shifts and the end of the decade-long era of historically low interest rates are giving rise to a new set of credit factors will drive provincial creditworthiness over the next 12 months.
Among the points to be discussed are:
- How the provinces will manage revenue and spending pressures through a slowing economy
- Which global headwinds apply the greatest credit pressure, and which ones can actually benefit provinces
- Impact of the high inflation environment on provincial creditworthiness
- Expectations of the effect from the higher interest rate environment on debt service
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SpeakersMichael Yake Associate Managing Director Moody's Investors Service
Adam Hardi Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sub-Sovereign Moody's Investors Service
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Michael Yake is Associate Managing Director in the Sub-Sovereign Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS). Based in Toronto, Michael leads the team of analysts for the Canadian Sub-Sovereign portfolio which covers provinces, municipalities and a wide selection of government related issuers in Canada. He is also a co-manager of the non-US portfolio of Moody’s Global Higher Education group which includes institutions in Canada, Singapore, Australia and the United Kingdom. He joined Moody’s in 2011.
Michael also assumed the role of MIS Country Manager for Canada in 2022, overseeing MIS’s activities in the country and acting as senior point of contact to issuers and other market participants.
Michael has a broad background in public policy, finance and economics. Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Senior Economist with the Bank of Canada in their Quebec regional office. He has also held various positions with other federal government departments.
Michael holds an M.A. in economics from Queen’s University and a B.A. in economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Adam Hardi is a Vice President - Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sub-Sovereign group in Toronto. Adam is one of two lead analysts responsible for the portfolio of Canadian regional and local governments, including the provinces, as well as government related issuers in Canada.
Adam joined Moody’s in 2015. He had previously spent over a decade at Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, in Toronto and Vancouver. He held various credit and trading roles in sub-sovereign and financial institutions credit risk analysis and credit risk policy, as well as institutional equity and derivatives trading.
Adam holds an MBA from the University of Toronto (Rotman) and a BA in Economics from the University of Manitoba. Adam is also a CFA charter holder and has been teaching the CFA curriculum since 2008.ess.