Negative rating action on Turkiye – drivers and next steps
Moody’s has downgraded Turkiye’s rating to B3 from B2 previously, and changed the outlook to stable from negative. This action was prompted by heightened macroeconomic risks following very high and still increasing inflation numbers in the first half of 2022, and comes against the backdrop of a much more challenging external environment given an expected economic slowdown in key trading partners and tighter global financing conditions.
- What are the key drivers of the downgrade?
- With energy prices surging what is the outlook for Turkiye’s current account and external financing options?
- What are Moody’s expectations for economic growth, given the economic slowdown and likely recession in Europe?
- How is the government’s fiscal position evolving?
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SpeakersDietmar Hornung Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Kathrin Muehlbronner Senior Vice President, Global MDB Lead, Sovereign & Sub Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Berke Batman Analyst, EMEA Banking Moody's Investors Service
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Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.
Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Dietmar was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.
Dietmar holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a Masters degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen.
Dietmar is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).
Kathrin joined Moody’s Investors Service in April 2010 as a member of the Sovereign Risk Group. She is the lead analyst for a number of European sovereigns including Turkey and Israel as well as several MDBs such as the IFC, EBRD and AIIB among others. She is also Moody’s global coordinator for all of Moody’s MDB ratings.
Prior to joining Moody’s Kathrin was a Director with Merrill Lynch, working as Sovereign Ratings Advisor to governments and banks in emerging markets. Prior to that, she was Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank in Spain.
She holds a M.Sc. in Economics, Latin American Politics, Spanish and Portuguese languages from the University of Tuebingen as well as a post-graduate economics degree from the College of Europe, Bruges.