New shock, new trends: Are sovereigns braced for a new reality?
The global ripple effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resulting in volatile recovery across nations, and as yet another indication that resetting trends are on the rise.
Will the deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financial conditions possibly bring about a global recession? If so, how will nations fair?
Hear from leading market players and credit experts on the pursuit of globalization and the implications for sovereigns’ economic strength, external position and policy effectiveness.
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Agenda14:35 - 15:20GMT
The year of living dangerously, once again: Global shocks and sovereign credit risks
After a year in which multiple shocks undermined sovereign credit profiles, governments face the daunting challenge of operating in an environment that will be characterized by high interest rates, persistent pressures in the energy front and the difficult balancing act of preventing further deterioration in sovereign balance sheets without inducing a recession.
- How will sovereigns in different regions respond to credit challenges in 2023? Which countries are more likely to be successful in overcoming next year’s hurdles?
- What is the likelihood that aggressive monetary policy tightening could materially affect fiscal sustainability as higher interest rates increase funding costs in a low global growth context?
- Is recession an unavoidable outcome of the policy stance adopted by governments and central banks? Will there be a policy shift as increased concerns about the socio-political implications of declining economic activity lead to a change of heart by policymakers?
15:20 - 16:05GMT16:10GMTEvent concludes
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SpeakersDietmar Hornung Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Moody's Ratings
Elisa Parisi-Capone Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Sarah Carlson Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service
Anne Van Praagh Managing Director – Global Head of Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Moody’s Investors Service
Mauro Leos Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk Moody’s Investors Service
Gaurav Ganguly Head of EMEA Economics Moody's
Anabel González Deputy Director-General World Trade Organization
Martin Wolf Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator Financial Times
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Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.
Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Dietmar was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.
Dietmar holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a Masters degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen.
Dietmar is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).
Elisa is Vice President – Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York. She has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of North- and Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranationals. Her previous regional coverage also included sovereigns in Southeast Europe and in the CIS. Prior to joining Moody’s, Elisa spent two years at the Swiss Ministry of Finance in Berne, Switzerland, and seven years as Senior Analyst at Roubini Global Economic in New York covering the Euro area and Finance and Banking issues. Elisa holds an MA in Economics from New York University (NYU) and completed her undergraduate studies with a Lizentiat in Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Elisa speaks fluent German and Italian and proficient French
Mauro has been with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group since 1996. He is currently Associate Managing Director for the Americas responsible for sovereign ratings in Latin America, the Caribbean, US and Canada. Mauro is also responsible for ratings of multilateral banks in the region. Prior to joining Moody’s, he was Managing Director for Latin America at Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) in Philadelphia. Mauro completed graduate studies at the University of Wisconsin in the areas of International Finance and Econometrics. He did his undergraduate studies -- major in Economics -- at the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (I.T.E.S.M.) in Mexico.
Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is the Chief European Economist and Head of the Climate Change Group at Moodys Analytics. Gaurav is an expert on a number of international economies having spent several years analysing and commenting on countries across Europe, Asia and the Americas. Gaurav has previously worked in financial services, consulting and audit. He was a research fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College in London, where he developed a framework for using climate scenarios within financial institutions. He currently teaches Environmental Economics at Imperial College. He did his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Martin Wolf’s unique perspective and experience gives him an unparalleled voice on European and global economies. He can speak with authority about the economic relationships underlying our complex financial systems, what we can learn from them, and what lies ahead for Europe, the US, and the rest of the world.
He is Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. In his regular columns for the FT, Mr. Wolf covers a wide range of economically relevant topics. In the recent past, these have included: the state of the global, European and British economies; the “global savings glut” and “secular stagnation”; global monetary policies; the rise of populism; the political economy of Brexit; the future of the eurozone; the future of globalisation; the challenges to the Chinese and Indian economies; the past and future of the global financial system; radical monetary reform; the productivity slowdown and technological change; the economics of migration; the economics of climate change; reform of corporate governance; and the future of universities. For his “services to financial journalism”, Martin was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000.
Martin brings considerable practical experience to his writings. He was a member of the UK government’s Independent Commission on Banking between June 2010 and September 2011. Previously, he was a senior economist for ten years at the World Bank’s division of international trade. He has been a Forum Fellow at the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1999, where he has served as a moderator, and is a member of its International Media Council. He was Director of Studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre, London, and has advised governments and international organizations on trade and economic integration.
Mr. Wolf is the author of highly regarded books on economics and globalisation, Why Globalization Works (Yale University Press), the global financial system, Fixing Global Finance (The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010). Fixing Global Finance describes how the financial crisis developed and what we can do to help ensure future global financial stability. China Business News named Fixing Global Finance its Financial Book of the Year for 2009. His most recent book on the global financial crisis is The Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned and Have Still to Learn – from the Financial Crisis (Penguin, 2015). His next book is ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism” (2023)
Martin has won several prestigious awards for his journalism, including the Overseas Press Club of America’s prize for “best commentary on international news in any medium” for 2013; the James Cameron Memorial Award for 2012; a distinguished honorary fellowship by the European International Business Academy in 2012; and the 2012 International Ischia Journalism Prize (Italy’s most prestigious media award).
Other awards include the US Society of Business Writers and Editors 15th Annual Best Business Journalism award, and the “Ludwig-Erhard-Preis für Wirtschaftspublizistik” (“Ludwig Erhard Prize for economic commentary”) from the Ludwig Erhard Stiftung (Foundation) for 2009. He won “Commentariat of the Year 2009” at the Comment Awards, sponsored by Editorial Intelligence, and the Decade of Excellence Award at the 2003 Business Journalists of the Year Awards.
Martin has a well-deserved reputation for rigorous thinking, deep insight, and his incisive and witty delivery.
Anabel González is Deputy Director-General at the World Trade Organization since June 2021. She is a renowned global expert on trade, investment, and economic development. She has previously served as Minister of Trade of Costa Rica, Senior Director of the World Bank Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice and Director of the WTO Agriculture Division. Before her current job, she was Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where she hosted the virtual series Trade Winds, and Senior Advisor at BCG.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, leads the Sovereign Risk Group’s European team, covering the European countries and the European supranationals. Prior to his appointment as team leader, Dietmar was Moody’s lead analyst on a number of European sovereign credits, including Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Russia, EU, EFSF and ESM.
Before joining Moody’s in 2007, Dietmar was Head of Emerging Market Research for DekaBank in Frankfurt.
Dietmar holds a Doctorate summa cum laude in Economics from Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. He received a Masters degree from Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel after studies in Kiel, at the University of Miami, and at the Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen.
Dietmar is a Certified EFFAS Financial Analyst (CEFA).
Elisa is Vice President – Senior Analyst at Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group in New York. She has lead and back-up analyst responsibilities for a number of North- and Sub-Saharan African sovereigns and supranationals. Her previous regional coverage also included sovereigns in Southeast Europe and in the CIS. Prior to joining Moody’s, Elisa spent two years at the Swiss Ministry of Finance in Berne, Switzerland, and seven years as Senior Analyst at Roubini Global Economic in New York covering the Euro area and Finance and Banking issues. Elisa holds an MA in Economics from New York University (NYU) and completed her undergraduate studies with a Lizentiat in Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Elisa speaks fluent German and Italian and proficient French
Sarah has been the lead analyst for most countries in the European Union, and is also a former lead analyst for the United States. She is currently the lead analyst for France and Italy, among other European countries. She is also one of the Sovereign Risk Group’s global spokespeople.
She joined Moody’s in 2009 after completing a Sloan Fellowship at the London Business School. Prior to this academic sabbatical, she spent seven years at the Financial Services Authority in London where she headed the regulator’s Risk Analysis area and acted as its chief macroeconomist. Before joining the FSA, she worked in Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic Analysis Group for six years, where she was the organisation’s Deputy Chief Economist.
She holds an MA in European Studies (with a concentration in Economics and Finance) from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University in Washington, DC and an AB with a double major in Government and History from Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire in the United States. She is a CFA Charterholder and is co-chair of the Macroeconomic Committee of the CFA Society France. She is a dual citizen of the United Kingdom and the United States and is based in Paris.
Anne Van Praagh is Global Head of the Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group for Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), overseeing credit ratings and research on public sector entities worldwide.
Prior to this role, Anne led the Sovereign Risk Group in 2021 and 2022. Anne was head of MIS Research from 2019 to early 2022, driving the content and engagement strategy for 20,000 research publications published annually. In 2016, Anne launched the Credit Strategy & Research group, setting Moody’s macroeconomic and “house views” on emerging risk trends and coordinating Moody’s credit response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Previously she held roles as MD for Sovereign Risk in the Americas, Middle East and APAC, Chief Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings, and lead analyst for US infrastructure, states and local governments. She also spent three years as vice president in Morgan Stanley’s public finance investment banking team advising on $25 billion in financings.
Anne began her career as a speechwriter at the US Department of Defense in the Clinton Administration. She has a Master’s degree from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Bachelor’s degree from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is married with two daughters.
Mauro has been with Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group since 1996. He is currently Associate Managing Director for the Americas responsible for sovereign ratings in Latin America, the Caribbean, US and Canada. Mauro is also responsible for ratings of multilateral banks in the region. Prior to joining Moody’s, he was Managing Director for Latin America at Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) in Philadelphia. Mauro completed graduate studies at the University of Wisconsin in the areas of International Finance and Econometrics. He did his undergraduate studies -- major in Economics -- at the Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (I.T.E.S.M.) in Mexico.
Dr. Gaurav Ganguly is the Chief European Economist and Head of the Climate Change Group at Moodys Analytics. Gaurav is an expert on a number of international economies having spent several years analysing and commenting on countries across Europe, Asia and the Americas. Gaurav has previously worked in financial services, consulting and audit. He was a research fellow at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College in London, where he developed a framework for using climate scenarios within financial institutions. He currently teaches Environmental Economics at Imperial College. He did his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.
Anabel González is Deputy Director-General at the World Trade Organization since June 2021. She is a renowned global expert on trade, investment, and economic development. She has previously served as Minister of Trade of Costa Rica, Senior Director of the World Bank Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice and Director of the WTO Agriculture Division. Before her current job, she was Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where she hosted the virtual series Trade Winds, and Senior Advisor at BCG.
Martin Wolf’s unique perspective and experience gives him an unparalleled voice on European and global economies. He can speak with authority about the economic relationships underlying our complex financial systems, what we can learn from them, and what lies ahead for Europe, the US, and the rest of the world.
He is Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. In his regular columns for the FT, Mr. Wolf covers a wide range of economically relevant topics. In the recent past, these have included: the state of the global, European and British economies; the “global savings glut” and “secular stagnation”; global monetary policies; the rise of populism; the political economy of Brexit; the future of the eurozone; the future of globalisation; the challenges to the Chinese and Indian economies; the past and future of the global financial system; radical monetary reform; the productivity slowdown and technological change; the economics of migration; the economics of climate change; reform of corporate governance; and the future of universities. For his “services to financial journalism”, Martin was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000.
Martin brings considerable practical experience to his writings. He was a member of the UK government’s Independent Commission on Banking between June 2010 and September 2011. Previously, he was a senior economist for ten years at the World Bank’s division of international trade. He has been a Forum Fellow at the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1999, where he has served as a moderator, and is a member of its International Media Council. He was Director of Studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre, London, and has advised governments and international organizations on trade and economic integration.
Mr. Wolf is the author of highly regarded books on economics and globalisation, Why Globalization Works (Yale University Press), the global financial system, Fixing Global Finance (The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010). Fixing Global Finance describes how the financial crisis developed and what we can do to help ensure future global financial stability. China Business News named Fixing Global Finance its Financial Book of the Year for 2009. His most recent book on the global financial crisis is The Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned and Have Still to Learn – from the Financial Crisis (Penguin, 2015). His next book is ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism” (2023)
Martin has won several prestigious awards for his journalism, including the Overseas Press Club of America’s prize for “best commentary on international news in any medium” for 2013; the James Cameron Memorial Award for 2012; a distinguished honorary fellowship by the European International Business Academy in 2012; and the 2012 International Ischia Journalism Prize (Italy’s most prestigious media award).
Other awards include the US Society of Business Writers and Editors 15th Annual Best Business Journalism award, and the “Ludwig-Erhard-Preis für Wirtschaftspublizistik” (“Ludwig Erhard Prize for economic commentary”) from the Ludwig Erhard Stiftung (Foundation) for 2009. He won “Commentariat of the Year 2009” at the Comment Awards, sponsored by Editorial Intelligence, and the Decade of Excellence Award at the 2003 Business Journalists of the Year Awards.
Martin has a well-deserved reputation for rigorous thinking, deep insight, and his incisive and witty delivery.