Volatility, Uncertainty, and What’s Next: The Ups and Downs of 2022 and Our 2023 Outlook for the Economy and CRE
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After 2021 shattered positive growth records, 2022 was characterized by geopolitical conflict; a pullback in economic activity; and higher uncertainty. How has this volatility and uncertainty impacted sectors of the economy, and how have commercial real estate performance metrics responded? Join us for this event where we summarize key developments for the year, and outline our updated forecasts for what’s to come in 2023.
- Probabilities of a recession: are we in one yet? Can you have a recession without monthly BLS job creation numbers turning negative?
- Which geographies and property types fared poorly? Which ones remained resilient, and why?
- What does a world of higher rates really mean for CRE finance?
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SpeakersKeith Banhazl Managing Director, Head of Commercial Real Estate Finance Moody’s Ratings
Victor Calanog, PhD Head of CRE Economics Moody's Analytics
Marisa DiNatale Senior Director - Economic Research Moody's
Philip Kibel Associate Managing Director Corporate Finance Group, CRE-REITs and Gaming Moody’s Investors Service
Darrell Wheeler Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Head of CMBS Research, Commercial Real Estate Finance Moody's Investors Service
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Keith Banhazl is a Managing Director and Head of Commercial Real Estate Finance for Americas within the Structured Finance Group and leads the team responsible for CMBS & CRE CLO new ratings and surveillance at Moody’s Investors Service. The team is responsible for reviewing Conduit/Fusion, Large Loan/Single Borrower, Agency CMBS, Credit Tenant Lease, Small Balance Commercial, CRE CLO, CRE CDO and other structured products at Moody’s Investors Service. He is also Moody’s Global Structured Finance Outreach Coordinator. He has been involved in various research initiatives and outreach activities related to the CRE securitization space, publishing and speaking on Moody’s behalf. Prior to being appointed to his current position, Mr. Banhazl was a Managing Director within the Structured Finance Group leading the US CMBS and CRE CLO/CDO Surveillance team and the review of primary US CRE CLO/CDO transactions, including the credit assessment team for commercial real estate assets within CRE CDO’s and CLO’s as well as Structured Credit transactions. Previously at Moody’s, he rated various fixed and floating-rate Conduit/Fusion and Large Loan CMBS transactions. Mr. Banhazl has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Brown University in Economics and History
Victor Calanog, Ph.D. CRE® is the Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He and his team of economists and analysts are responsible for the firm’s commercial real estate market forecasting, valuation, and portfolio analytics services.
Dr. Calanog's research has received awards and fellowship support from several institutions, including the Ford Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the Penn Lauder Center for International Business Research.
Marisa DiNatale is a Senior Director and Head of Global Forecasting at Moody’s. Marisa oversees all forecasting and publication operations in the Economics group within Predictive Analytics at Moody’s. Her areas of specialization and research are U.S. labor markets, household balance sheets and credit, and international economics. She is a cohost of the Moody’s weekly podcast “Inside Economics”. Marisa started her career as a labor economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. She holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University and a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from Boston University.
Philip M. Kibel is an Associate Managing Director in the CRE-REIT team at Moody’s Investors Service, where he manages a team that focuses on the ratings of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs). The team rates issuers from Canada through Latin America.
Prior to joining Moody’s, he was a Vice President with W. P. Carey & Co. LLC (WPC), a publicly-traded real estate investment company that specializes in corporate real estate financing using the corporate net-lease, or sale-leaseback structure. Philip was previously associated with Goldman, Sachs & Co., where he researched and implemented estate tax planning for the general partners of Goldman, Sachs and created trusts to provide heirs with financial security. In addition, he published internal reports summarizing the estate and gift tax laws of Japan, Hong-Kong and Germany.
Philip, a New York Certified Public Accountant, is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. He received a BS in Accounting from Lehigh University and also holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia Business School
Darrell Wheeler manages CMBS and CRE CLO research for Moody’s Investor Services. He is renowned for developing mortgage-backed securities analysis and models that provide unique fundamental credit insights.
His structured finance experience is extensive, previously managing the structured finance research of S&P Global Ratings, Citigroup Global Markets and Cantor Fitzgerald. He is a past member of CREFC’s Board of Governors and currently participates in CREFC’s editorial board. He has contributed research to numerous publications, including CREFC’s E-primer.