Nordic Real Estate Conference

Registration for this event is now closed. Please email events.emea@moodys.com.

Grand Hôtel Address: Södra Blasieholmshamnen 8, 103 27, Stockholm

A perfect storm for the real estate sector

Funding costs of Nordic real estate companies have leapt over the past several months, reflecting growing investor caution amid high inflation, rapid interest rate increases and slowing economic growth prospects. Higher funding costs have in turn reduced issuance by commercial real estate (CRE) companies, and some are likely to turn to the banking system or alternative sources of financing to cover sizeable upcoming bond maturities.

Although banks are likely to take on some of these “flow back” amounts, they will selective, pressuring other CRE companies to seek out alternative sources. Refinancing risk will therefore increase, even if companies can use revolving credit facilities to refinance some of their debt maturities. In the longer term, some may have to reduce or cut dividends, issue equity or divest assets. We expect leverage could increase as widening yields and a weaker economy weigh on asset values. Higher interest rates, hedge maturities’ refinancing needs and new debt due to capital expenditure will reduce EBITDA interest coverage.

Against this unsettled backdrop, we ask whether this confluence of factors represents a “perfect storm” for CRE companies and whether it marks the “beginning of the end” of the current real estate cycle.

Agenda

08:00 - 08:30
CET

Registration & networking breakfast

08:35 - 09:00
CET

Moody’s real estate property outlook: Credit quality is rapidly weakening (Swedish)

  • Are real estate companies facing a perfect storm and what does it mean for credit quality?
  • Inflation is soaring and central banks are hiking interest rates
  • Bond and equity are penalising real estate, companies are turning to secured debt funding
  • Property yields are increasing, lowering valuations and raising effective leverage
09:00 - 09:30
CET

Panel discussion: Status of the property market and key risks (English)

  • Is a crash in both the commercial real estate and housing sectors on the cards?
  • How will the Riksbank and other central banks act?
  • How will property market values develop?
  • Will households be able to cope with high inflation and interest rates at the same time as high energy prices?
  • Do households and property companies pose a financial systemic risk?
09:30 - 10:15
CET

Panel discussion: Financial systemic risk - banks’ exposure to property companies (Swedish)

This panel will start with a short presentation from Riksbank, followed by a short presentation from the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority.

  • Will banks be able to digest property companies’ upcoming bond maturities?
  • Will the Riksbank take households’ indebtedness and property markets’ leverage into account when considering interest rate rises?
  • In what situation would the Riksbank purchase bonds on the secondary market?
  • Does the real estate market pose a financial systemic risk?
  • Will property companies’ refinancing risk lead to a change in regulations for banks and commercial real estate?
  • How does today’s situation compare to the property crash in the 90s?
10:15 - 10:45
CET

Networking & Coffee Break

10:45 - 11:20
CET

What are real estate companies doing to reduce risk and protect credit quality? (Swedish)

  • What are real estate companies’ views on what is happening in the property market and what will follow? Will financial policies of real estate companies change?
  • Are there still buyers of assets out there? How do they refinance such purchases?
  • What is needed to “open” the bond market again?
  • Is the stock market overreacting?
  • What is the appetite of banks to lend to property companies?
11:20 - 11:25
CET

Closing remarks

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Maria Gillholm Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Matthias Hellstern Managing Director, Corporate Finance Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Daniel Harlid Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Arvid Lindqvist Fund Manager, Head of Research Catella Bio
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Marie Elvesol Associate Managing Director - Global Head of Investor Management & Country Manager Sweden Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Anders Kvist Senior Advisor to the Director-General Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority Bio
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Martin Flodén Deputy Governor Riksbank Bio
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Louise Welin Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, EMEA Banking Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Mattias Persson Group Chief Economist & Head of Research Swedbank Bio
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Peter Werleus Portfolio Manager Norron Asset Management Bio
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Sarah Carlson Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Moody's Investors Service Bio
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Dr. Ilija Batljan Founder, CEO and Board Member SBB Bio
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Sven-Olof Johansson CEO Fastpartner Bio

Why Attend

One-to-ones

Hear from senior Moody’s analysts and expert guest speakers
One-to-ones

Network with industry peers
One-to-ones

Ask questions about real estate companies’ creditworthiness and financial stability


Event Details:

Venue Name: Grand Hôtel

Address: Södra Blasieholmshamnen 8

103 27 Stockholm


Date: December 6, 2022

Time: 08:30 AM – 12:30 CET