US Public Finance Conference
Transforming Credit Perspectives Across US Public Finance
Risks to the US Public Finance sector are evolving as issuers face a credit landscape that has been reshaped by record inflation, volatile markets and lasting impacts of the pandemic.
Agenda
Breakfast and Registration
How a shifting global credit cycle impacts US public finance
The Muniland podcast comes to life! Nick Samuels, host of Muniland – Moody’s US public finance podcast – is joined by Atsi Sheth, Managing Director and Global Head of Strategy and Research at Moody’s Investors Service, to discuss the dominant macroeconomic trends affecting US public finance. A shifting global credit cycle and the possibility of a recession will expose certain issuers to a more challenging credit environment. What can we expect as the credit cycle turns?
• Weakening credit conditions as inflation rises, interest rates move higher and growth slows
• The possibility of a recession as GDP declines
• What will the impacts on employment, spending and personal income mean for credit?
Trends and transitions in the rockiest areas of the credit landscape
Over the last two years, certain aspects of the public finance sector have changed in unpredictable ways. During this session, we’ll place a spotlight on the most acute changes, including:
• General observations on the transforming credit landscape
• Shifting commuting patterns and lasting ridership declines in the mass transit sector
• The impact of changing enrollment dynamics and expense pressures on the higher education sector
• How inflation will drive up pension and OPEB costs, but higher interest rates will cause liabilities to go down
Networking Break
Compounding impacts of Covid and prospects for recovery in healthcare
The healthcare sector has taken the sharpest turn in the credit cycle, with compounding negative effects of the pandemic, labor shortages and inflation leading to challenging credit conditions. This session will focus on how we are assessing hospital credit in a period of extreme operating stress, including:
• Key drivers and mitigants of recent hospital performance
• Red flags, bright spots and covenant breaches
• Our expectations for fiscal year 2022 and beyond
• Near-term trends and issues for hospitals
Ask us anything: Senior leaders forum
Ask managers responsible for state, local government, infrastructure, higher education, healthcare and housing credit all of your pressing questions. What are the latest trends that Moody’s is following? What are Moody’s latest insights on the ties between legal security and fundamental credit risk? What ESG factors do we anticipate will drive credit rating actions in the next five years? What else is new on the horizon?
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As Managing Director of the Global Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Group, Mike is responsible for the rating activities in those segments across the Americas, EMEA and Asia. In this capacity Mike is also the Head of the US Public Finance Group. Previously, Mike was the Managing Director of the Global Commercial Group of Moody’s Investors Service, from 2010 through 2012, where he oversaw management of the firm’s relationships with existing issuers, as well as business development and strategic planning for the rating agency. In 2008 and 2009, Mike was the Managing Director of the Global Corporate Finance Group, which conducts all of Moody’s non-financial corporate ratings activities. This followed five years as Managing Director and co-head of the Americas Corporate Finance Group. Mike’s other responsibilities at Moody’s have included serving as Managing Director and co-head of the Leveraged Finance team, responsible for syndicated loan and high yield bond analysis. He joined Moody’s in 1996 as a senior analyst for Leveraged Finance, coming from Bank of America, where he was Vice President in the corporate banking division. Mike earned a B.S. degree in finance from Siena College and an M.B.A. in finance from Iona College. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst as well as a member of the CFA Institute, the CFA Society of New York, the Fixed Income Analysts Society and the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.
Dan White is a director at Moody’s Analytics, responsible for directing government consulting and economic research with an emphasis on public finance and fiscal policy. He regularly presents to clients and conferences, and has been featured in a number of print, radio and televised media outlets, ranging from Bloomberg Television to the Wall Street Journal. He also has the pleasure of working closely with a number of governments and policymakers in an advisory role and teaches economics as an adjunct professor at Villanova University. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Dan worked as a financial economist for the State of New Mexico, where he forecast revenues and analyzed a wide range of policy issues concentrated around economic development, public investment and debt management. Dan holds an MA in economics as well as undergraduate degrees in finance and international business from New Mexico State University.
Nick Samuels is a Senior Vice President for the States and High Profile Ratings Team covering credits for the state of Texas, New York City, and the District of Columbia.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Nick worked for the National Association of State Budget Officers analyzing state fiscal and expenditure trends. Nick holds a BA degree in government from Skidmore College and a Master’s in Public Administration from the George Washington University.
Atsi Sheth is Managing Director and Global Head, Credit Strategy and Research.
Moody’s Credit Strategy & Research group includes global teams focused on Macroeconomic Research, Default & Ratings Analytics and Global Emerging Markets as well as regional credit strategy teams each focused on Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and EMEA.
Together these teams establish and articulate Moody’s house views on the trends that drive risk across countries, sectors and asset classes. They undertake in depth data driven analysis and leverage the expertise of ratings and research analysts across Moody’s to generate global, regional and sector insights on macro-economic, political, policy, technology and environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks.
In her capacity leading the group, Atsi also serves as a spokesperson on Moody’s analytic views, engaging with investors, the media and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.
Atsi is a long-time champion of Moody’s Diversity, Equity & Inclusion (DE&I) as well as our Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives. She serves as co-chair of the CSR Thought Leadership & Solutions working group and the Senior Advisor to Moody’s Asian Leadership Initiative - a Multicultural Business Resource Group.
Prior to her current role, Atsi was Moody’s Chief Credit Officer for the Americas and before that Managing Director in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. She has also served as Chief Economist at Reliance Capital and taught courses on International Political Economy and Emerging Markets at Columbia University and Northwestern University. Atsi has a PhD from Northwestern University and a B.A. from Bombay University.
Dan Seymour is a Vice President – Senior Analyst for Credit Strategy and Standards/Rating and Process Oversight (RPO). Based in New York, he works closely with analysts both in the Sub-sovereign and US Public Finance groups. Prior to joining RPO, he was a lead analyst for US states and before that, US local governments.
Before joining Moody’s, he was a reporter from the Associated Press and the Bond Buyer Newspaper. Dan holds a BA from Rowan University and a Master’s degree from Baruch College. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.
Al is Senior Vice President and Group Credit Officer for Public Sector Ratings in the Ratings and Process Oversight Group within Credit Strategy and Standards. His chief responsibility is improving the rigor, quality, and consistency of analytic standards and procedures underlying ratings in US public finance and for sub sovereign governments. Al chairs the Public Finance Forum and is a member of the Infrastructure Finance Franchise Committee, both of which are responsible for the review and improvement of rating analytics. He participates on numerous task forces including bankruptcy, pensions, OPEBs, municipal utilities and surveillance.
Before rejoining Moody’s in 2011 after a two decade hiatus, Al was a credit officer at AIG Financial Products Corporation, with a broad portfolio of credits including municipals, banks, corporates, and sovereigns, along with energy and project finance. During his preceding eight years at Moody’s, he worked on a variety of teams within the US Public Finance Group and managed the southeast regional ratings group. Al was formerly an architect/urban planner and was a senior professional and manager on diverse projects in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
He holds master’s degrees from Columbia University in architecture and urban planning, a bachelor’s degree from Columbia College, and studied accounting and finance at the NYU Stern School of Business.
Tom is the dedicated public pension specialist for Moody’s Investors Service US Public Finance Group. He has held this role since 2013, in which he authors pension-related research and facilitates pension risk assessments across the group’s ratings. Tom originally joined Moody’s as a ratings analyst in 2011, where he covered local government credits throughout the Midwest. Prior to joining Moody’s, he served as Deputy Chief of Staff to a member of the San Diego City Council. Tom holds a Master of Science degree in Applied Mathematics (Actuarial Science) from DePaul University in Chicago and a Master of Arts in Economics from San Diego State University.
Susan Shaffer is a VP-Senior Credit Officer on Moody’s Higher Education and Not-for Profit Team. She covers the ratings of a diverse portfolio of institutions, including Ivy League universities, large public university systems, and nationally prominent not-for profit organizations.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Susan served as Senior Vice President at New York State’s economic development agency, Empire State Development, where she oversaw economic incentive programs for New York State businesses and major educational and not-for profit institutions. Previously, she worked in admissions and marketing in the higher education sector at Tulane University and New York University as well as in recruitment at Ernst and Young Consulting. Susan holds a B.A. in Classics from Tulane University and an M.B.A. from New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Eva Bogaty is an Associate Managing Director and manages Moody’s Healthcare Ratings team which is responsible for the credit analysis of over 300 not-for-profit hospitals across the US. Eva previously served as the team lead for the Western States Local Governments ratings team, and as a lead analyst on both the Higher Education and Healthcare ratings teams. She serves as a rating chair across the public finance group and has significant experience in academic medical centers, not-for-profits, K-12 school districts, charter schools, and public hospital districts.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Eva worked in economic development for New York State, and in Russian women’s business development for a USAID-funded not-for-profit. Eva holds an MBA from New York University and an AB in Russian and East European Area Studies from Middlebury College.
Dan joined Moody’s Healthcare Ratings team in 2007. He covers hospitals in Massachusetts, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, California and Washington in addition to several other states. Dan is a 2018 recipient of the Bond Buyer’s Rising Stars award and is the author of multiple research publications including the Not-for-Profit Healthcare Sector Outlook for 2020, the Not-for-Profit Healthcare Rating Methodology and research on the topics of: the Affordable Care Act, academic medical centers, payer-provider consolidation, and investment liquidity. Prior to joining Moody’s, Dan worked as a researcher at a think tank in Washington, DC and in community development in Russia and Israel. He holds a B.A. in political science from Binghamton University, a Masters in International Affairs with a concentration in finance from Columbia University, and earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 2011.
Brad is a Vice President – Senior Credit Officer based out of Moody’s San Francisco public finance office. As a senior member of the Healthcare ratings team, Brad covers a variety of institutions throughout the country, focusing geographically on the western United States. His areas of expertise include derivative products, variable rate financings, liquidity issues, and debt securitization structures. Brad joined Moody’s in 2006.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Brad worked as an investment banker with Goldman Sachs & Co. serving not-for-profit healthcare clients, universities, and other notfor-profit organizations. Prior to working on Wall Street, Brad worked in the field of international economic development in South East Asia.
Brad holds an M.B.A. from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management, with majors in finance and not-forprofit management, and a B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley.
Rita Strauss is an Assistant Vice President / Analyst in the Healthcare Ratings group and has been with Moody’s since 2014. Her responsibilities include assigning and monitoring healthcare ratings within the states of California, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Rita worked as a Staff Auditor and Accountant at the American Federation of Musicians and Employers’ Pension Fund. Rita earned her M.B.A. with a concentration in Healthcare Administration from Mount Sinai School of Medicine/Baruch College and her B.A. in Finance/Investments from Baruch College Zicklin School of Business.
Naomi Richman is a Senior Vice President in Moody's US Public Finance Group. Naomi manages the Surveillance team and Data and Analytics team. She is also responsible for contributing to state and local government analytical initiatives, research and methodologies. Naomi was previously a Managing Director in US Public Finance and Chief Credit Officer for global public sector ratings. Naomi has over 35 years of experience in credit analysis at Moody's, covering state and local governments, housing, higher education, financial guarantors, and global sovereigns.
Prior to joining Moody's, Naomi spent four years with the New York City Department of Finance. Naomi holds an MPP from Harvard University and an AB from Bryn Mawr College.
Kendra Smith is the Managing Director responsible for several teams in Moody's Public Finance Group including Healthcare, Global Higher Education, Not-For-Profits,US Housing, and Municipal Supported Products. For several years prior, Kendra served as the Managing Director in Moody’s Corporate Finance Group leading the High Yield Team, which covered over 30 industries, and also the Retail, Apparel, Restaurants,Gaming and Lodging Team covering the full ratings spectrum.At Moody’s for approximately 20 years, Kendra has served as a Vice President and Senior Analyst in the Corporate Finance Group covering a myriad of industries serving as both a lead analyst and a Ratings Chairperson. Over the years at Moody’s, Kendra has authored Special Comments on topics such as refunding risk and needs for nonfinancial US Corporates and rating methodologies.Prior to her tenure at Moody’s, Kendra received formal credit training at The Chase Manhattan Bank and then worked in global corporate finance for several years in commercial banking.At Moody’s, Kendra serves on the Diversity Council (CEO, ex-officio); is the senior advisor to the Black Inclusion Group; a presenter and participant in various Employee Resource Group events. Kendra is also a founding member, and past co-chair, of the Women’s Employee Resource Group.Kendra is a graduate of Harvard University with an A.M. degree in Russian Studies. She also participated in the Harvard Business School Executive Education Program. She received a B.A. degree in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia.
Tim Blake is a Managing Director in Moody’s Public Finance Group responsible for US state ratings as well as local government ratings in the Eastern region. He also oversees ratings for US transit systems and a specialist team on government pension analysis. Tim has thirty years of experience in the municipal market.
Prior to joining Moody’s, Tim was a credit risk manager and ratings advisor at Goldman Sachs, and a credit and liquidity facility specialist at NatWest Markets.
He is a graduate of the State University of New York at Albany.
Kurt Krummenacker is an Associate Managing Director in the Americas Project Finance and Infrastructureteam, which covers a portfolio of transportation, public power, and project finance inNorth and Latin America. Prior to joining Moody’s in March 2006, Kurt worked inseveral departments of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Kurt is aretired U.S. Army Captain who served as a Blackhawk Helicopter pilot andcommanding officer of several aviation, logistics, and administrative units primarily inthe 101st Airborne Division. Kurt holds a BS in Economics from the United StatesMilitary Academy at West Point, a Master of Aeronautical Science from Embry-RiddleUniversity, and an MBA in Finance from the Columbia University Business School.
As Managing Director of the Global Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Group, Mike is responsible for the rating activities in those segments across the Americas, EMEA and Asia. In this capacity Mike is also the Head of the US Public Finance Group. Previously, Mike was the Managing Director of the Global Commercial Group of Moody’s Investors Service, from 2010 through 2012, where he oversaw management of the firm’s relationships with existing issuers, as well as business development and strategic planning for the rating agency. In 2008 and 2009, Mike was the Managing Director of the Global Corporate Finance Group, which conducts all of Moody’s non-financial corporate ratings activities. This followed five years as Managing Director and co-head of the Americas Corporate Finance Group. Mike’s other responsibilities at Moody’s have included serving as Managing Director and co-head of the Leveraged Finance team, responsible for syndicated loan and high yield bond analysis. He joined Moody’s in 1996 as a senior analyst for Leveraged Finance, coming from Bank of America, where he was Vice President in the corporate banking division. Mike earned a B.S. degree in finance from Siena College and an M.B.A. in finance from Iona College. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst as well as a member of the CFA Institute, the CFA Society of New York, the Fixed Income Analysts Society and the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.