Nordic Real Estate Conference
The post-pandemic landscape for commercial real estate
Grand Hôtel, Stockholm, Sweden
Please note, the main spoken language will be Swedish. The sessions below marked with an asterisk (*) will be held in English.
The pandemic has accelerated the shift to remote working and e-commerce, and restructured the commercial real estate (CRE) market, creating winners and losers. Logistics and warehouse properties, and residential and public service real estate have been the big winners. Retail is a long-term loser and hotel properties a short-term loser. The office sector contains both winners and losers.
We expect environmentally friendly prime offices in vibrant, large cities to be more resilient to the working-from home- trend than those of secondary quality in secondary locations. Still, transactions are very strong (though vacancies are increasing in most areas), rents are mostly stable and yields continue to tighten.
Will the pandemic mark the beginning of the end of the current real estate cycle? Should real estate companies prepare for an inevitable cooling in sector conditions?
- The ultra-loose monetary response to the pandemic continues to support property valuations and investment markets. The pandemic’s impact on the Nordic real estate companies rated by Moody’s has been barely visible to date. Companies may emerge from the pandemic largely unscathed. How prepared are they for the post-pandemic era and how do we assess the outlook for the real estate sector’s credit quality? What are the greatest risks?
- With GDP in Nordic countries recovering quickly, what is the likelihood of interest rate rises and potentially higher than expected inflation? The CRE market is strong, but for how long? How advanced are Nordic real estate companies in terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) measures, as climate change and corporate governance increase in importance?
- Finally, how vulnerable is the Swedish bond market when it comes to liquidity and how important is it to financial stability? The Riksbank has begun to buy corporate bonds, but will this be enough to ensure sufficient liquidity in the secondary market if investor sentiment sours?
Agenda09:00 - 09:05CET
*Welcome Address09:05 - 09:15CET
*The outlook for the Nordics as they stage fast recovery from pandemic crisis
09:15 - 09:35CET
- Upcoming general elections in 2022, growth developments and monetary policy choices
- How strong is the Swedish recovery?
- Where are interest- and inflation rates going?
Real estate property outlook: Credit quality will remain stable in the short term
09:35 - 10:15CET
- Ultra-loose monetary response supports property valuations and M&A activity
- Even macro recovery in the Nordics but an uneven sector recovery – retail and hospitality hit, WFH strategies still pending and flight to quality
- Largest risks – refinancing risk, decreasing market values and ESG risks
- How well positioned are companies for the post-pandemic era?
Panel: Status of the property market and key risks for the sector post-pandemic
10:15 - 10:45CET
- CRE market is strong, but for how long? Property market status and outlook
- Risks; office and retail properties, WFH and ESG
- Bond market appetite and other financing alternatives as hybrids
- Implications for credit quality – lessons learned from the pandemic
Networking & Coffee Break10:45 - 11:35CET
Panel: Liquidity in the Swedish bond market
11:35 - 11:40CET
- How liquid is the Swedish bond market and how important is it to financial stability?
- The market is significantly less deep and wide than the euro market, while the secondary market lacks transparency and is illiquid
- The Riksbank is purchasing bonds on the secondary market. Will this improve liquidity for real estate companies or only reduce risks in bond funds?
- Concentration of real estate issuers – bond market and banks (loans and RCFs)
- All markets froze at the same time – is diversification key?
- Some fund structures can challenge market liquidity
- Systemic risks; CRE exposure in bank and bond markets and households’ increased indebtedness
- Change in regulations – banks cannot hold bonds on their own books
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